Thirteen games are on the National Football League’s preseason schedule beginning with a 9:00 a.m. Pacific time contest between the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens.
One of my favorite people in the world, Tom Tolbert, who I have an opportunity to work with on his KNBR radio show each week during the football season, was handicapping the NFL on his show this week. His broadcast partner mentioned that the Atlanta Falcons, who had just added defensive stud Matthew Judon to their roster, looked like a threat this year.
Judon was a third round draft choice of the Baltimore Ravens eight years ago and after five seasons with the Ravens spent the past three campaigns in New England with the Patriots. The talented linebacker has been named an All-Pro four times.
Despite the new infusion of talent on their defense, Tolbert was quick to dismiss the Falcons. “No, not Atlanta,” he said emphatically. I smiled while driving on the freeway and hearing Tolbert’s comment … I knew why. Last year, I was high on the Falcons and both Tolbert and I backed Atlanta’s chances a few more times than our pocketbooks should have. Tom went on to announce on the radio what we had discussed off air about the Falcons surprise flat 2023 campaign.
“I thought they would be a lot better last year,” Tolbert continued, “I’m just not ready to get on them this season.”
Last year, the Falcons ended their campaign with seven wins against ten losses but were even worse against the point spread with a 5-11-1 mark against the number. When a losing team has an even worse point spread record one of two things have to be true; either the team is really bad, or they are overrated. In 2023, the Falcons were a little bit of both. Handicappers, like both Tom and I, went to the Atlanta well based on projections, and the Falcons team simply never lived up to those expectations.
Yet, handicapping is like any endeavor that requires a short memory for best results. The Falcons were a disappointment last season based greatly on poor quarterback play. This year, they have looked to remedy that liability with the acquisition of two bright quarterback possibilities.
They brought in veteran Kirk Cousins; he ranks fifth all time in pass completion percentage for NFL quarterbacks with 1500 or more attempts. He too, like Judon, has been named to four Pro Bowl teams. The Falcons also looked long term in correcting their quarterback woes while spending their first round draft choice, the eighth pick overall, on Michael Penix Jr. The University of Washington grad has looked solid in his first training camp.
So, while the Falcons were mostly a bust in 2023, there are a lot of reasons to like them this season. Although, it will probably take a few wins before Tolbert is ready to get on board.
Today, Atlanta is in Baltimore to play the early game of the league’s 13 game schedule. The Ravens have now lost five straight preseason games against the point spread and four of those five games straight up over the past two seasons. This is on the heels of winning 24 straight summer games, an all-time NFL record.
See, if you bet on history, it can bite you.
As for the Falcons, they didn't beat the Ravens yesterday, but their narrow loss, 13-12, was a point spread win ... and isn't that what really matters?