NFL 2024 Season - Week 16
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Week 16
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Buyers Regret
by Dennis Ranahan

Well there goes a hundred million dollars.

Ever make a purchase that you soon realized was not worth the cost?

The Atlanta Falcons might be feeling that way right now. They spent $100,000,000 to bring in the quarterback they thought would take them over the top not only in their NFC South Division race but into the mix for their first-ever Super Bowl title. Turns out, they are showing little return for their investment while their opponent this week, who acquired their quarterback at a bargain basement price, owns one of the best records in football.

The quarterbacks we are referring to are Kirk Cousins of the Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings Sam Darnold. The expensive Cousins has led the Falcons to a six and six won loss record, Darnold has guided his Vikings to 10 wins in a dozen decisions. This week, these two costly and value-added quarterbacks square off when the Vikings host the Falcons.

While Cousins earned a reputation that garnered him a big pay day this season, Darnold was tossed around after entering the league as a third overall draft selection. Cousins was picked in the fourth round of the 2012 draft out of Michigan State by the Washington Redskins. His selection was an insurance policy on the quarterback the Redskins took with the second overall selection that year, Robert Griffin III.

RG3, as Griffin was nicknamed, had a brilliant rookie season but suffered a severe injury in a playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Never regaining his dominance over the game following his injury, Griffin relinquished the starting job in Washington to Cousins, and the fourth-round draft choice took full advantage.

Statistically, Cousins ranks among the top five quarterbacks of the past 20 seasons in completion percentage and touchdown passes. But he has a history of losing to teams with winning records. In other words, his stats have been padded by dominating inferior opponents and falling short against quality opposition.

Still, after a successful stint in Washington, Cousins spent six seasons as the Vikings starting quarterback. That’s right, the same Vikings he will meet Sunday at US Bank Stadium.

Darnold’s NFL career has been quite the opposite of Cousins. He came into the league highly touted out of USC and was the third overall selection in the 2018 draft. He spent his first three NFL seasons with the team that drafted him, the New York Jets, then two seasons with the Carolina Panthers and last year with the San Francisco 49ers. In 56 starts over his first six NFL campaigns, Darnold had a won/loss record of 21-35.

This year, after Cousins took the money and ran, the Vikings spent a first round draft choice on Michigan Quarterback J.J. McCarthy and signed Darnold to apparently backup the rookie. But McCarthy was injured during the preseason and lost for the year. That loss turned into a big gain for the Vikings and Darnold.

The seven-year veteran has for the first time in his career performed up to the standards that had first made him a third overall draft selection. This season he has tossed 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and his quarterback ranking of 102.5 is 20 points higher than his career number.

Meanwhile, this season Cousins 90.8 quarterback ranking is nearly 10 points below his career ranking, and he has surrendered 13 interceptions while collecting 17 touchdown passes. Last week, he single-handedly erased an otherwise good performance by his Atlanta teammates while tossing four interceptions, including a critical pick six, to turn a game in which the Falcons had twice as many yards both rushing and passing into a loss against the Los Angeles Chargers.

That defeat dropped the Falcons out of sole possession of first place in the NFC South Division, a grouping of four teams without a winning record.

So, now what?

Well, the Vikings have won their last two games, over the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, without picking up a point spread win. The Falcons have lost their last three games to turn a good 6-3 mark into one with as many losses as wins.

Where does that leave these two teams come Sunday?

One inspired to overcome recent failings, the other winning close while losing against the number. The team with something to overcome versus a team hanging on is a solid play for the team most challenged, which this week in Minnesota is the visitor.

Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (+5½) over Minnesota Vikings