The National Football League has abandoned their hypocrisy on gambling. For years they claimed it as an evil while reaping huge rewards from the interest the point spreads added to their product. In recent years, they have embraced a full working partnership with a number of sports betting outlets including DraftKings, Caesars Entertainment, Fanduel and others.
This is far cry from when I served as an employee in the league and was banned from gambling and frowned upon if I mentioned a point spread. As recently as three seasons ago, ESPN, FOX, CBS and NBC were not allowed to offer a point spread on air within one hour of a day’s first kickoff.
Now, point spreads and money lines are flashed on the chyrons, that news ticker running across the bottom of an NFL telecast. On air personalities are giving their picks on the games with information that range from the game selections to over/unders and player stats.
Because of this participation in the gambling world, the NFL has put together a number of public service announcements meant to curb problem gambling. It is a little like a drug pusher handing out promotional materials for rehab clinics. In one ad, Hall of Fame Quarterback Kurt Warner is warning gamblers to only bet what they can afford to lose.
I have a different take on the situation. I suggest you only bet what you can afford to win. It is a more positive way to approach wagering and still provides the guardrails to avoid getting in over your head.
How do you know what you can afford to win?
Start the season with the money you have to put at risk in a separate account, just as if you were to buy a stock or real estate and have to put the money up before gaining a position to earn a profit. Most gamblers get in trouble because they bet what they want to win, and if they fail early, they chase losses with money they sometimes can’t afford.
On the Qoxhi Picks site we offer what I believe is the most important tool in the game to transform wagering on football from a gamble to investment, the Account Manager. At the beginning of a season a client selects one of the five money management strategies available online, declares their opening account balance, and then with the click on the money rated games are prompted on the exact amount to wager on each selected game.
The Account Manager allows subscribers to adjust their actual vig cost and point spread for each game wagered from the default number of 10% and the most common closing line. This keeps the account balance accurate for each individual subscriber.
The Account Manager was added to the Qoxhi Picks site in 2001, and in the succeeding 24 years the Basic Strategy has shown a profit in 21 seasons with a typical campaign raising the account balance between 30 and 60 percent. The other four strategies available online, Aggressive, Top Pick Aggressive, Top Pick Double and Top Pick Exclusive, accelerate wager amounts based on the success of the weekly Top Pick, which has had one losing season in the 44 years it has been offered.
The cost of the Qoxhi Picks service for a full season is $1950 for an online subscription, and $3900 for a full season online that includes text messages to alert early point spread plays that we anticipate have a current line better than the expected closing number. In a typical season, the early releases will turn a loser into a push or winner and a push into a winner three or four times. The higher cost is worth it to clients that have an opening account balance of $40,000 or more, while the online bargain is priced right for someone beginning with an account balance of $20,000.
From a financial standpoint, it is never recommended that a client pay for a service that costs more than 10% of what they can afford as an opening account balance. Most rated games carry a money management number of four and top picks are rated five. The number represents the percentage of money put at risk on each play, a four rated game generating a wager amount equal to 4% of the opening or current balance plus the vig. A five rated top pick 5% of the opening or current balance and double with some of the more aggressive strategies.
Setting up an account to have a client end in that rare group that actually turns a profit wagering on football over the course of a season starts with a solid plan and the proper financing to best ensure long term profits. Qoxhi clients often find the most difficult challenge after a couple seasons with us is locating a book willing to take their action … books don’t like to lose.
So, for all those public service announcements designed to curtail problem gambling, I find the best solution is winning.