Assumption Sunday, I know if you are religious, you may recognize that as a Catholic holy day of obligation. But for me, Assumption Sunday is the start of a National Football League season. The Assumption is the forecast we prepare for each team and the chances of them having a good or bad season.
Our Assumptions are based on both historical trends and current roster adjustments. Our Assumptions are also open for renegotiations. As a season unfolds and we notice, as we did last year, that the Washington Commanders are a lot better than we initially anticipated, we are open to make adjustments.
Season opening games can be very revealing. When a team is in a bad spot on our charts and yet succeeds, it is consistently an indicator that they are in for an especially good year. If, conversely, a team is by initial calculations are in a very good spot to excel and fail on the field, we can quickly adjust our numbers to indicate the high probability that that team is in trouble.
This year, on that chart, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who open today on the road against the New York Jets, are in a difficult spot to cover the current point spread. While we initially liked Mike Tomlin’s team in this opener, the late information cools us on their chances, and we get to go to school on the Steelers. If they win and cover the point spread today, they could well be in for a special season even though most football followers would just think it was a no big deal win against the Jets.
Trust me, if the Steelers win and cover today, it is a very big deal.
Weather today at the ten outdoor sites is mostly mild. There is a chance of some rain in New Jersey, Jacksonville and Foxboro, where the Jets host the Steelers, the Jaguars entertain the Panthers and Patriots are at home against the Raiders.