Beginning in 1975, the National Football League adopted the playoff seeding based on regular season records. In the 50 Super Bowls played since the seeding rules were put in place top seeds have advanced to the big game 57 times and second seeds 24 times. The remaining Super Bowl appearances were by teams with a third seed (5), fourth seed (11), fifth seed (3) and sixth seed (2).
In 2020, the NFL added a seventh seed in each conference, but no team that qualified for the playoffs out of that slot has yet advanced to the Super Bowl.
This year, we have a number one seed, the Seattle Seahawks, matching up against a second seed, the New England Patriots. The most common seed matches have been between first and second seeded teams along with top seeds versus each other, both have occurred 15 times since 1975.
The top seeds have beaten the second seeds ten times in their previous 14 contests … but against the point spread, the number one versus number two seeds are 7 and 7.
One looking for an edge in Sunday’s game involving the Seahawks and Patriots would have to look somewhere other than the seed. It is worth noting that on the four occasions when the number two seed was favored over the top seed they beat the spread three out of four times.
In Super Bowl XVII, the Miami Dolphins were the second seed and favored over the top seed Washington Redskins. That is the only time that the top seed getting points won the game. The Redskins beat the Dolphins 27-17 as a three-point underdog.