More than
Winning Selections...
Money Management Tools
to Turn Picks into Profits.

What worked then doesn’t work now.

That is a rule that can be applied across the board in life events. Yet, it is no more dramatic than in the world of wagering. Today, there is an explosion of wagering on everything from what color hat the queen is going to wear to when Donald Trump will next attack Iran. What we have learned from this ability to wager on anything is how valuable inside information is.

It is known that the first step in fixing a problem is recognizing you have one.

The Cowboys got the first step to resolution down, they recognized that their problems in winning football games was tied to their porous defense.

Step two is fixing the problem.

Now this is where the Cowboys have stumbled. They spent money and changed defensive personnel this season like a freshman class in high school welcoming a new group of first year students from one year to the next. Problem is, the change in personnel and the addition of new coaches hasn’t made a difference in the Cowboys primary problem.

They can’t stop an opposing offense.

In 2025, the Cowboys allowed the most points of any team in the league. This year, their improvement has been negligible as they rank 25th in points allowed. Last week, at home they allowed undrafted rookie quarterback Jadon Daniels a clear path to get his Tampa Bay Buccaneers their first win of the season. Near the end of the game Dallas owner Jerry Jones is seen first hitting the table in front of him in disgust and then leaving his suit with the look of a much older man than came to the game a few hours earlier.

My numbers consistently show that backing last year’s Super Bowl teams is high risk. I believe this is based on two primary reasons. First, teams that advanced all the way to the Super Bowl are commonly the same teams the public backs the following season and the books prey on this tendency by setting point spreads that shift the advantage in their games. Second, from a purely motivational perspective, it is much more difficult to have the eye of the tiger coming off success than it is looking to blunt a losing run.

Al Davis always said, "Maintaining greatness is a lot more difficult than first achieving it.”

Now, just between you and me, he had said that to me during the 1970’s when his Silver and Black were an NFL powerhouse … I suspect in his later years with the Raiders he found out how hard it was to pull a team up from the bottom.

Nevertheless, his statement holds true for those on top and with that as a guide I am very cautious wagering on either the Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots this season. They were the two teams that participated in Super Bowl LX, a game won by the Seahawks, 29-13.

The Seahawks and Patriots opened against each other this season and played a defensive game in which Seattle starting quarterback Sam Darnold was injured on the game’s first series of downs. He missed the rest of that contest, won by the home team 13-10, and the Seahawks second week game against the Cardinals in Arizona.

Motivation being the key, the loss of Darnold added the need for the Seahawks to overcome him being sidelined and rally behind backup Drew Lock.

If you were a parent and raised a child to adulthood you might know all the transitions that occur during those years. On a light note, there are the competitions in the driveway shooting hoops that begin with you allowing your kid every opportunity to learn the game and develop some confidence. In other words, despite your dominance over a 5-year-old, you are not out there looking to crush him.

There is a crossover point. I first noticed as a father the games were more competitive even as I had increased my level of play. Then, as I suspect happens to most fathers, the kid is better than you and it is unlikely he will give you the same break as when he was younger and you allowed the contests to be competitive.

Nope, once a kid beats his dad fair and square, he never, or at least mine didn’t, goes back to allowing the games to be competitive on his account.

Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be 43 this December. Now, if that was his number instead of his age he would be a lot better off. This week, he guides his Steelers into Tampa to meet the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium and will be competing against a quarterback who is young enough to be his son.

Jalon Daniels is 23-years-old, he played six seasons of college football at the University of Kansas. He got a couple extra seasons in for a couple reasons including Covid. He was not drafted this year when he was eligible for the allocation of college talent but was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

When Bucs starter Baker Mayfield was sidelined with an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand Daniels stepped in as the Buccaneers starter. He was narrowly defeated by the Green Bay Packers in his first start, 17-14, then led an upset road win over the Dallas Cowboys on October 8th.