While it is immensely satisfying to save a wager that would have been lost had an extra half point or more not been purchased, buying points rarely improves a bottom line over the course of a season. It also carries the liability that some gamblers would make bets thinking that the extra half point or more will make all the difference in how strong their play on the game is. That can create bad bets that cost more when they lose.
Here is a hard and fast rule to best ensure long range profits: Don’t buy points.
That is not to say when a point spread is purchased and what the line is isn’t critical to maximizing profits. The ability to anticipate if a line is best bought now for a selection, or wait until closer to game time, is a valuable asset. NFL lines are not parimutuel, but rather locked in when the player places his bet.
To assist players in taking advantage of the best line available, the Qoxhi website shows opening, current and projected moves on each spread. If that graph shows that the Kansas Chiefs opened as an eight-point favorite over the Houston Texans in a Divisional Playoff game and the chart on the Qoxhi site shows that we anticipate the line to move up to nine before kickoff, one can know that a wager on the Chiefs is best done early, at the current line.
In fact, this year the Chiefs did open as an eight-point favorite and while we thought the line would climb to nine, in the final hour before kickoff the number actually moved to Kansas City by 9½. When the Chiefs took an intentional safety in the closing seconds of the game, they had their lead reduced from 11 to 9 with a final score of 23-14. Those investors seizing the early line won, the bettors wagering late didn’t.
In the 2024 season, more NFL lines came into play than in any of the 14 years we have been offering managed accounts that capitalized on advantageous early lines. In a typical season, three or four games are affected by early purchases versus the closing number; this season that number rose to nine.
The first one, was only the second time in our history that a recommendation to purchase an early line actually turned what would have been a push into a loss. It happened in the second week of the 2024 season when our early call recommended a purchase of the Houston Texans giving 6½ points over the Chicago Bears. We anticipated the line would move up to seven points on game day. It didn’t, it moved down to six and the game landed on that number with Houston winning the game 19-13.
That game tuned out to have our early buy turn a push into a loss, but the other eight contests affected by the spread all showed better lines early than the closing numbers and resulted in three would-be losses ending with a push, four would-be pushes resulting in wins, and that one Chiefs playoff game that turned a would-be loss into a winner.
What does getting the better line mean to the bottom line?
In a typical season it raises profits 12 to 16 percent … in 2024, the gain was 40%.
Having the right team is important, betting on them at the right time further shifts wagering on football from a gamble to an investment.