The Kansas Jayhawks versus the Gonzaga University Bulldogs.
If the NCAA would have been able to stage their basketball tournament, those are the teams I anticipated would have met in the Championship Game to complete March Madness on the first Monday in April.. Since the Super Bowl was completed on February 2nd, I had been working the numbers on college basketball to get ready for the tournament.
Before the NFL season began last August, the two teams we first thought would advance to Super Bowl LIV were the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs. As it turned out, we had the Chiefs over the San Francisco 49ers after all the games were played except for one. Whether we would really have gotten a Kansas/Gonzaga final is highly debatable, last year I had Michigan State as the projected winner before the tournament started, they didn’t win. But the year before we did have the winner, Villanova, as our pick before the tournament tipped off and they did beat Michigan for the title.
What is much more important than picking the ultimate winner before the tournament or season begins, is how the tournament or season produces point spread results leading up to the final game. Two years ago we may have had the ultimate champion, but last year we had a slightly better record in all the games we delivered against the point spread.
An additional spike in results for 2019 was boosted by the introduction of a wager strategy called Triple Play. The method dictates an amount equal to 2% of an opening account balance wagered on both the first half and final score in college basketball games. Three wagers on NBA Playoff Games and NFL teams; first quarter, halftime and final.
The strategy takes advantage of our ability to identify wagering situations that are enhanced by motivational factors. Often, in both basketball and football, a team with less skill, but a motivational edge, will jump to an early lead. Often the team with the better overall talent will win the game in the end, sometimes by enough of a margin to cover the point spread. That is the magic with the Triple Play, sometimes a game that loses on the final score, has already locked up a profit with wins in the first quarter and halftime.
Last year, the 53 NBA selections delivered during the playoffs earned a point spread record of 31-22. But, half of those losses, 11, the defeat on the final result was preceded by wins in both the first quarter and halftime. In other words, half the losses last year were winning propositions, winning 4% while losing, based on a 10% vig, 2.2%, for a 1.8% profit. For games that win all three wagers, the profit margin is 6%.