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I’m just not into selling myself. Particularly in this business.

When I abandoned a career in the National Football League to open Qoxhi Picks, people thought I was nuts. Gambling was an evil. The 1919 Chicago Black Sox. Gamblers in movies were commonly linked to the mob. Anyone using my service for gain in 1977 had to break the law unless they were wagering legally in Nevada.

My wife tells me that my columns have too many statistics.

Seems she gets bored with numbers, but loves the human interest stuff when I talk about people interactions. So, to appease her desires, and not to abandon my forte, numbers, I will forego listing the stats for what I’m about to say. At the same time, I request you trust that numbers bear out my positions while I forgo them in favor of the story around it.

It took me nearly 40 years of professional handicapping before I landed on a wagering method that compliments both my strategy for picking winners and quest to maximize profits. Not only that, but I didn’t uncover this gold mine during a football campaign, but rather during a basketball season.

Long before I became a professional handicapper in 1981, and even before I worked in the front office of the Oakland Raiders beginning in 1973, I had developed charts to show that motivation is the most important factor in reliably identifying point spread winners. Talent is already reflected in the posted point spreads and public opinion, but the factors that tip the spread advantages to the favorite or underdog are tied to the motivation of the teams entering the contest.

I not only think the best division in the NFL is the National Football Conference West, but I also think they have the two best teams in football. Two of the past three NFC Champions are out of the NFC West, albeit they both lost their bid for a Super Bowl title when the New England Patriots downed the Los Angeles Rams three years ago, and the Kansas City Chiefs outscored the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.

This week, we are going to get to see just how good the Rams and 49ers are, and I am betting they both win their home games. The Rams welcome the defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers into SoFi Stadium, the site where both these teams would like to be playing when Los Angeles hosts Super Bowl LVI on February 13, 2022.

The Buccaneers have the championship ring, and the Rams are just that much hungrier to get it. The edge that comes from defeat and the challenges of being the champion are in play here, and both favor the home team.

Why are the Rams better than they were three years ago when they failed to score a touchdown in their Super Bowl Loss to Tom Brady and company?

This year, they made a bold switch at quarterback that could have the same effect that adding Peyton Manning to the Denver Broncos or Tom Brady to the Buccaneers generated. Both those quarterbacks won Super Bowls with their new team, but both Manning and Brady brought a winning pedigree from their previous NFL experience.

Manning had a Super Bowl ring and the best regular season record in football as a member of the Indianapolis Colts, then guided the Broncos to a pair of Super Bowls and a career crowning win in Super Bowl 50 over the Carolina Panthers. Brady had six Super Bowl wins with the New England Patriots, and won his seventh title last season with his new team.

The Carolina Panthers are on the road on Thursday night and favored by more than a touchdown on the spread over the Houston Texans. Both these teams are 2-0 against the line this year; the Texans winning on opening day against the Jacksonville Jaguars and winning on the spread last week in a straight-up road loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Panthers first two weeks have been more impressive.

On opening day they won at home and covered the point spread against the New York Jets. Last Sunday, they upset the New Orleans Saints, 26-7. The Saints had opened their season with a 38-3 victory over the Green Bay Packers, then were throttled by the Panthers.

Are the Panthers the surprise team of the NFL this year?

With newly acquired quarterback Sam Darnold and the explosive running of Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers attack has solid potential. But the real strength of this young Panthers ball club is the defense head coach Matt Rhule has assembled.

So, are the Panthers ready to be favored by more than a touchdown on the road?

Five National Football League teams won their opening games by double digits. They were the New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals.

In second week action, four of those teams lost straight-up and four lost against the point spread.

How about the five teams that were beaten by double-digits in Week One? They were the Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans.

Four of those teams were in action yesterday, and two of them won straight-up, Chicago and Tennessee. The fifth team from the group that got blown out last week are in action tonight when the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions.

While first week results are less often repeated in second week games, they always set up a team for what is to come next. Do you really want to be on the wrong side of tonight’s game by betting against Aaron Rodgers and company earning a quick redemption for last week’s blowout 38-3 loss to the Saints?

Not me.