I was cautioned that it was impossible to make money in the sports handicapping industry if you ‘tell the truth.’ Honesty in the sports handicapping business is as difficult to locate as a political candidate not in the pocket of some big donor.
When I began developing Qoxhi Picks in the late 70’s, the organizations making money selling picks were claiming winning records that were as bogus as elixir salesmen hawking miracle cures off the back of their wagons in the old west. Still, the prospect of 80 or 90 percent winners attracted gamblers to those outlets like a porch light attracts moths on a hot summer night.
Mike Warren, Jim Feist and Danny Sheridan were three leading handicappers that offered clients the moon while delivering picks that had no better a chance of winning than tossing a coin; heads for the home team, tails for the visitor.
Handicappers would run Monday ads in the USA Today promising a winner and offer the opposite side of the game to every other caller. Knowing the law of averages that half their clients would be happy, and repeat business. The losers would be passed to the next table, a service under the same umbrella with a different name, that would contact the bettors that got the loser while claiming their service had a big play on the opposite side of the game and won. And, the salesperson would be so concerned about the client that lost, that he would give him a deal on the upcoming week, perhaps a package normally costing $300 could be theirs for $50.
In those days,before the internet, business was conducted over the phone. A persistent salesperson would say anything and call insistently until a conned customer would finally surrender their credit card information.
It was a nasty scam, but a profitable business model.
This is not to say I was alone in promoting a business that was reputable. There were some knowledgeable people working in the sports handicapping business that I both admired and followed to find their reasoning for particular games. But, I had an advantage over all others, I had developed my handicapping skills before spending seven seasons working in professional sports, first in the front office of the Oakland Raiders and later with the Golden State Warriors.
When I opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981, I also took a different tact than most in identifying point spread winners. First inspired by the motivational factors that dictate results beginning with a game in which the Baltimore Colts upset the Minnesota Vikings on the road in a game they were forced to play without their prize quarterback, Johnny Unitas, who was out with an injury.
I had charted how teams that needed to overcome an obvious obstacle performed above their perceived talent level, and how other teams, with an apparent cakewalk on their schedule, struggled to win let alone cover bloated point spreads.Then, the firsthand knowledge of working with the Raiders during championship seasons further crystalized in real time why those tendencies played out on game day.
I quite frankly thought I could peg at least one game every week that never lost … at least against the point spread. In truth, we have only accomplished that goal once in the 43 years of NFL selections, but in those same seasons we have never had a losing record on the one game each week that we release as the Top Pick of the Week.
Still, in the real world, where the games are played and sometimes things don’t go our way, we have not been perfect. When I opened Qoxhi in 1981, I thought delivering point spread winners was enough to assure my clients earned bottom line profits. In fact, that assumption didn’t take into account that people were gambling on my picks along with many of their own making. Gamblers have a tendency to wager more when they are ahead in an attempt to make a killing, until they give the profits back, and bet more when they are behind to get even which most often leads to getting in over their heads.
With the advantages available over the internet, in 2001 my top computer guy, Dustin Thomas, and I developed the Account Manager. An online tool that offers clients an opportunity to declare an opening account balance, pick one of five money management strategies, and take advantage of every Qoxhi selection with the advantage of knowing exactly how much to wager on each game to stay within proven financial astuteness.
Since introducing this tool 23 years ago, it three times failed to show a season long bottom line profit. In most years, earnings land between 30 and 60 percent profit, but last season losses were within that range. And while 2022 showed a 91% profit margin, last year nearly half those gains were lost in a season that just didn’t go the way we expected.
This is where honesty in this business can depress sales, no gambler wants to hitch their wagon to a service advertising losses while so many others claim massive gains. But, not very many services have the actual results that produce consistent profits like Qoxhi, and when we have an off-year, there is evidence that shows the following seasons generate robust profits.
Like a championship team that suffers a disappointing campaign, the motivation to get back to the game and winning is at an elevated level.
Welcome to 2024 … we look forward to bouncing back with a big campaign.