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My best friend started out as a client.

Five years my senior, my buddy hunts alligators at night in Florida waters and considers it a win when he wrestles one into his boat.

My wife tells me that my columns have too many statistics.

Seems she gets bored with numbers, but loves the human interest stuff when I talk about people interactions. So, to appease her desires, and not to abandon my forte, numbers, I will forego listing the stats for what I’m about to say. At the same time, I request you trust that numbers bear out my positions while I forgo them in favor of the story around it.

The New York Giants host the Philadelphia Eagles tomorrow in a battle between two NFC East Division teams that carries with it playoff implications.

No, the struggling last place Giants are not threatening the division leading Dallas Cowboys, even after Jerry Jones’ team has lost three of the most recent four games including an overtime loss on Thanksgiving against the Las Vegas Raiders. The team moving into contention for a postseason slot, and perhaps even a division title, is the Eagles.

Philadelphia opened this season with a road win over the Atlanta Falcons, 32-6. That result brought up two quick questions; are the Falcons that bad or are the Eagles a team to be reckoned with?

Turns out, the Falcons are that bad, but the thought Philadelphia was ready to challenge the best teams in their division didn’t immediately materialize as the Eagles dropped their next three games. After four weeks of the season, the Cowboys were atop the division with a 3-1 record and poised to win three more in a row and seemingly put a lock on the NFC Division midway through the 2021 season.

Then, the Cowboys began their stumble with a blowout loss at home to the Denver Broncos, and after a win over the Falcons, have lost two more games against the Kansas City Chiefs and their holiday loss to the Raiders.

While the Cowboys experienced their recent dip, the Eagles have won three of four games and with a victory at MetLife Stadium on Sunday would pull to within 1½ games of Dallas, a team they meet for a second time this year on the final day of the regular season.

The Thanksgiving holiday weekend is often about travel and visiting family and friends. Visitors in the National Football League have also begun with a special weekend as all three teams on Thanksgiving Day, and night, beat their home hosts. Two of the three, the Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills, also beat the point spread while the homesteading Detroit Lions absorbed another agonizing close defeat while beating the spread against the Chicago Bears.

It has been a season for visitors in the NFL. Their three wins on Thursday upped the visiting team's season straight-up record against home teams to 87-80-1, and a profitable 98 and 70 mark against the point spread.

Is this weird?

It is by NFL tradition.

Last season, while the pandemic left most stadiums void of fans while the teams battled on the field, for the first time in league history more visitors than home teams won games straight-up during the regular season. Visitors were 128-127-1 straight-up in 2020, and the books seemed to have compensated for home teams not gaining the advantage of their home fans energy with the visitors posting only a 128-126-2 edge against the point spread.

But this season? How do we explain that visitors are having an even better year and the books are collecting on the visitor success against the point spread? Couple things to note right now, if this visitors success continues much longer, we will see adjustments in the point spreads that make visitors less of a profitable wager. This would combat what has been traditionally accepted; that home teams have a three point advantage over visitors. That is why the point spread price chart on this site shows opponents with the same point spread price when the home team is favored by a field goal.

There are three National Football League games scheduled for Thanksgiving Day beginning with the contest in Detroit when the Lions host the Chicago Bears. The afternoon game is the traditional Dallas Cowboys playing host with this year’s opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders. Tonight, the Buffalo Bills visit the New Orleans Saints.

Ten years ago, there was a move afloat in the NFL to take the Thanksgiving game away from the Lions because they were so bad for so long. Now, ten years later, they are still really bad but it seems the public is used to turkey’s on this day and the Lions are most often the first feast of the day for the visiting opponents.

Maybe not today.

Their opponent, the Chicago Bears, come to town banged up and with rumors that they are going to fire head coach Matt Nagy after the game. These events have inspired the public to wager on the winless Lions today and the point spread, which opened with the Bears favored by 3½ points, has inched down in response to the public action.

I have no desire to bet on the Lions when the public is backing a winless team, nor do I see value with a Chicago team that is missing too many of the elements they hope will provide a better future, among the missing is injured rookie quarterback Justin Fields.

The Las Vegas Raiders won their first three games of the season and with Kansas City stumbling and the Chargers and Broncos not seemingly solid teams yet, it appeared opportunities were abound for the Silver and Black.