Unlike horse racing, where you make a wager and the payoff is determined by the final odds based on a parimutuel formula. In sports, when you make a point spread play you get the odds for the game that you bet when you made the wager. This means, it makes a difference not only who you wager on in a game, but when.

In the National Football League, 7% of the games are shifted on the point spread decision from the opening to closing number. Turning a would-be loss into a winner or push has a huge effect on the bottom line. That is why our Qoxhi site offers not only the opening, day-by-day and current point spreads, but also our anticipated direction of the line.

For example, a couple weeks ago we wrote a story and released a rated play on the Jacksonville Jaguars giving three points over the Indianapolis Colts. All week the line remained at three points, while our projection line on the game showed that we anticipated a move to the Jaguars and a closing line with them favored by three-and-one-half points. For those that wagered at the three points the result was a push, for those that waited until the line moved on game day just an hour or so before kickoff, the three point Jacksonville win, 37-34, was a loss.

The Qoxhi Picks online Account Manager always posts the most common closing number for an NFL game, and this one was therefore chronicled as a loser with the minus 3½ points line. It is why the bottom-line results on the Account Manager can be improved upon each year by taking advantage of better lines.

Taking advantage of better lines is not a sure thing. In 2016, the Baltimore Ravens opened as a 5½ point favorite over the Cleveland Browns and we alerted our clients to wager on the game now while expecting the line to inch up to six. It didn’t, on the Sunday the game was played the line moved down to the Ravens by 4½ points and when the game landed on the Ravens winning by five, 25-20, bettors getting the closing line won while our early call lost.

That was the only time we ever had our early suggestion turn a push or winner into a loss until this season. In second week action, we advised clients to buy the Houston Texans (-6½) over the Chicago Bears before it moved up. We anticipated the closing line would actually be seven points, but instead the move was down to six. The final score found the Texans winning by six, 19-13, which made our early advice a loser and the closing number a push.

Okay, those are the facts. In 23 years of releasing early numbers we have twice turned a wager into the wrong side, losing a would-be win in 2016 and losing a potential push this year. Those disappointments are offset by two or three games each season benefiting from the early advice. Two games have already been turned this season, in addition to the Jaguars/Colts game the early purchase also picked up a win in Week Six with the Ravens giving 6½ points against the Washington Commanders. The game closed with the Ravens favored by seven and landed on that number in the 30-23 Baltimore victory.

Before making a wager, you may benefit your bottom line to see if the game you are betting is more likely best wagered now or with an anticipated closing line. That information is always available on this site on the Point Spread Moves chart.