As a rule, I don’t talk about games gone by for either credit or excuses. Nothing is more hollow than a handicapper bragging about winning last week or why a loss should have won if only the ref wouldn’t have been so bad.
Useless.
Still, each National Football League result is another clue, just as knowing a color peg is right and even in the right slot when confirmed by an opponent playing Mastermind. After a while, everything fits in its place.
That is why last night’s result was so surprising to me when the Seattle Seahawks visited Arizona and came away with a win over the Cardinals. On the scoreboard, the game looked close, Seattle won, 23-20. On the field, the Seahawks domination was much more decisive and, according to our numbers going into that game, shouldn’t have been.
It was a perfect spot for the Cardinals, a team we had slated this year as a serious challenger for the NFC West Division title against more recognized powers like the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.
Last night, the Cardinals were wagered into a home underdog role, starting as a slight favorite and kicking off as a slight underdog. They were challenged to compensate for the loss of their top runningback, James Conner, who suffered a season ending ankle injury in the Cardinals one-point setback last week against San Francisco. They had also lost seven straight times to the Seahawks, including two lopsided losses last season. While that may be a reason to look for another Seattle victory, on my charts, from a motivational perspective, those results lend well to a Cardinals win last night.
All those factors weighed heavily in the Cardinals favor, and then they played the game, and lost.
Now, instead of viewing the Cardinals as a potential division winner, we have a team that after four weeks has lost both their division games and only have wins to show against two weak teams, the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers. That resume is a lot different than if the Cardinals would have done what we expected last night. If that would have happened, Arizona would have been a team with three wins and only a single loss suffered by one point on the road against the undefeated 49ers.
Now, the other side of last night.
If the Seahawks win in this spot, like they did, and are being led by a quarterback, Sam Darnold, who led the Minnesota Vikings to 14 wins last season, maybe they are a serious challenger for the NFC West and beyond.
Maybe not.
If the Cardinals are bad, the Seahawks win last night means they lost at home to the 49ers and only beat the Panthers and Saints other than what now has to be considered a weaker than thought Arizona squad.
Jury is still out on how successful Darnold is going to be in Seattle, but it appears he is going to be more successful than Kyler Murray in Arizona.
It’s not reacting only to last night’s result as a win or lose, but more importantly, what does it mean? What can we now more likely expect next given we have one more clue to work with?
Well, this for instance.
The 49ers are 3-0 this season with that home win last week over the Cardinals by one point, 16-15, and road wins over Seattle and New Orleans to open their 2025 campaign. They beat the Seahawks on the loser's home field to open the season … which means a lot. There have been 59 Super Bowl winners and only two of them lost on opening day at home. With their opening road win we can dramatically elevate the 49ers prospects and erase Seattle from any longshot Super Bowl bid.
The 49ers other win, at New Orleans, came in Mac Jones’ first start in relief of the injured Brock Purdy. That was perfect motivation for the Niners with the need to overcome not only the loss of Purdy but other season opening starters sidelined with injuries including George Kittle. In other words, the 49ers three wins this year include a pair of perhaps free spots on the schedule if the Cardinals are now downgraded on our charts and that opening victory over the Seahawks.
Which poses this question for this week: Was the 49ers opening road win against a good Seattle team, or a Seahawks team that three wins came against subpar competition, namely Carolina, New Orleans and Arizona?
San Francisco is not the same team that opened three weeks ago in Seattle. Just as last year was grounded by injuries, Kyle Shanahan’s team this year has been victims of another rash of injuries sidelining top talent. Purdy may well be back on Sunday when the 49ers host the Jacksonville Jaguars, but defensive standout Nick Bosa is gone for the season, victim of an ACL injury suffered in last week’s narrow win over the Cardinals.
The Jaguars come to town with a record, like the 49ers, a notch or two ahead of their actual talent. The Jaguars two wins were gained against Carolina and a surprisingly winless Houston Texas team. They also allowed a late lead to slip away while suffering their only loss of the season at Cincinnati in second week action.
I don’t think either the Jaguars or 49ers are headed to a deep playoff run this season, but they come into action this week with a combined 5-1 record. From purely a statistical perspective, the chances of the 49ers advancing to 4-0 and dropping the Jaguars to 2-2 is a lot less likely than both these teams heading into Week Five with 3-1 marks.
Which mean this:
Qoxhi Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over San Francisco 49ers