Turf toe.
Sounds kind of benign, doesn’t it? Like a hangnail or something. But it’s not, and for any athlete that has suffered from turf toe they will tell you how debilitating it is. This week, turf toe has sidelined the San Francisco 49ers most expensive off-season signing, quarterback Brock Purdy.
Up until Wednesday the media in the Bay Area was still thinking the 49ers fourth-year signal caller would be able to go on Sunday when the 49ers meet the New Orleans Saints in the Big Easy. San Francisco Head Coach Kyle Shanahan, who is more forthright and honest than most NFL coaches, didn’t offer much hope of Purdy being available for this week’s game at his Wednesday afternoon press conference.
Then, on Thursday morning, the more dire projections on Purdy’s health were confirmed that he will not only miss Sunday’s contest but could be sidelined with the injury for as many as four games.
The point spread dropped on the 49ers favorite role in New Orleans on that news. San Francisco had opened as a 7-point choice on a line set before the season began, which was reduced to 6½ points at the beginning of this week and has now dropped to the 49ers favorite by only a field goal.
It is as if the injuries to a pair of important offensive cogs in San Francisco’s arsenal, Purdy and tightend George Kittle, who were both available when the 49ers kicked off their season last week with a win over the Seattle Seahawks and will be missing this week, cut the spread in half and the perceived chances of a 49ers road win.
So, people are betting on the Saints in big numbers based on the injuries.
I think they misread the circumstances.
The 49ers do not appear special to us this year … and that was even before they lost Purdy and Kittle to injury. The Saints look even less capable of winning with their projected starting quarterback, Derek Carr, retiring due to injury before the season began. Last week, in their home opener, first-year head coach Kellen Moore came up short against the Arizona Cardinals, 20-13.
The Saints had a trio of quarterbacks vie for the starting job this summer, and the decision went to veteran Spencer Rattler. His current backup was the Saints second round pick in this year’s draft, Tyler Shough. Many thought Shough looked better than Rattler in the preseason, but Moore chose Rattler perhaps as much so as not to put undue pressure on the rookie while the team hopes he will be their signal caller of the future.
In fact, I think the quarterback of the future for the Saints is not currently on their roster. If they are as bad as I think they are, their franchise QB may well be Arch Manning. The grandson of the Saints first quarterback, Archie Manning, and the child of Archie’s oldest son, Cooper, is starting this year for the Texas Longhorns. When he declares for the NFL draft many predict he will be the first player chosen and the Saints have a solid chance of being the worst team in football this season.
So, what do we have here?
With Purdy sidelined, the 49ers will be led on the field by Mac Jones. He is no slouch. The one-time starter for the New England Patriots is perfectly capable of leading the visitors to a win and is according to our charts more talented than the Saints starting quarterback.
The potential worst team in football following a home loss is being bet on because the 49ers are confronted with a couple key injuries. Where a suspect San Francisco team could have got caught looking past the Saints the injuries will provide a motivational spark otherwise missing from the visitors.
See that?
We give less points with a better chance of winning.
Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-3) over New Orleans Saints