The National Football League serves up a pair of Monday Night Football games beginning with a contest in Miami between the Dolphins and New York Jets at 4:15 p.m. Pacific Time. That matchup is followed an hour later with the Denver Broncos hosting the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Jets and Dolphins in primetime? Who chose this matchup for a Monday night? Were they anticipating it would bring in a big television audience? I know the Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa running their offense, and he can be exciting. He may well draw before he gets hurt. But the Dolphins are not a good team, and the Jets are worse.
This could have been a preseason evaluation and is confirmed now as these two teams come into action tonight with a combined record of no wins and six losses.
Ouch.
The homestanding Dolphins are slight favorites and may well win here … but to lay points with a winless team in Week Four seems like it would be a bad idea. But sometimes facts interrupt ideas. Since 2000, winless NFL teams in the fourth week of the season giving points are 20-14 straight-up and 17-15-2 against the point spread.
So, that is not a reason to bet against the Dolphins tonight.
Want an even more surprising stat? Winless Week Four underdogs are 28-60 straight-up, 32% winners, but 50-36-2 against the point spread, 58% winners. Statistically, 16% of NFL games have a team that loses straight-up winning the wager by virtue of getting points on the spread. In this case, a winless team sees a 26% increase in having the point spread turn a losing result into a winning wager.
So, both the Jets and Dolphins have some advantages tonight based on their situations as oh and three teams. There are other factors, but none of them add up for me to warrant a financial stake in this battle.
The later game does.
Historically, teams that have a rapid rise to the playoffs, from last place to a postseason berth from one season to the next, have a down year following their initial success. It is a combination of expectations that exceed actual talent levels and motivational elements. This drop in results most often shows up in straight-up records, but even more consistently in point spread results. The public is betting on teams that they saw crack the playoff field last year and those teams are then forced to carry higher point spreads than their talent dictates. It is akin to adding a few more pounds for a horse to carry with his jockey.
Two years ago, the Houston Texans went from the cellar to the playoffs and last year, by this measure, should have had a down year. In fact, they cracked the playoff field again, but that was in large part attributable to playing out of the AFC South Division where a 10-7 mark was good enough to top the competition by two games. Even with success last year, the Texans regular season point spread record was a losing 7-8-2.
This year, we have two teams that had breakout years in 2024, rising from the bottom to the playoffs were the Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos. By our evaluations, these two teams should have trouble this year, particularly against the point spread.
The Broncos won on opening day but failed to cover the point spread against a highly suspect Tennessee Titans team. They have lost close games the past two weeks on the road, both straight-up and against the point spread, to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers. Now they return home favored by more than a touchdown against a Cincinnati Bengals squad that got pummeled last week in Minnesota, 48-10.
The Bengals are underdogs and having to play with back-up quarterback Jake Browning while starter Joe Burrow is sidelined with an injury. They had won their first two games that Burrow started in close decisions over the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars before last week’s thumping in Minnesota.
This is not the first time the Bengals have had to go with their franchise quarterback sidelined by injuries. Browning replaced Burrow two years ago and did pretty well. In his seven starts while Burrow was out, he led the Bengals to wins four times while throwing 12 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Two weeks ago, replacing Burrow after he suffered his injury, Browning was at the controls when the Bengals came from behind to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That, perhaps, is why the Bengals figured they’d be okay with Browning in Minnesota. They weren’t. Browning surrendered two interceptions and was mostly horrible in his first start since 2023. The Bengals didn’t get the normal boost in performance with a back-up starting quarterback forced into action because he had led them to a win the week before and had success two years ago.
A confident team with a backup quarterback seldom turns out well.
Now, off that loss, the Bengals are inspired to play well with their confidence shaken by last week’s lopsided defeat.
And the Broncos, who haven’t beaten a point spread yet this year, are giving more than a touchdown on the spread because … I don’t know why.
But I’ll take it.
Qoxhi Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (+7½) over Denver Broncos