The National Football League will complete their preseason schedule this weekend with a pair of games tonight, four games on Friday and the remaining 20 teams in action on Saturday. The Week Three preseason schedule opens tonight with the Carolina Panthers hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a contest set to begin at 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time. An hour later, the New York Giants will host the New England Patriots.
The preseason line moves are mostly tied to quarterback playing time. If Patrick Mahomes is named the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs the line moves up like the temperature at the Scottsdale Airport in August. If Andy Reid says Mahomes won’t see action, the public gravitates to the Chiefs opponent with the books moving the line accordingly.
In most cases, if a starting quarterback sees preseason action it is for about as long as Alfred Hitchcock made a cameo in one of his movies. Maybe the starting QB drives his team to an opening score, maybe not, but the bulk of most preseason games are handled by backup quarterbacks.
Now, when a team has a real competition for the starting role behind center and both competitors are capable, we can have a preseason juggernaut.
Tonight, we have a pair of preseason undefeated teams meeting with the Patriots having outscored the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings by a combined 79 to 30 margin, and the Giants winning over the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets by a 65-37 total points for and against.
In New England, the starting quarterback for first-year head coach Mike Vrabel is set with Drake Maye ready to open the season when the Patriots kick off their regular season campaign at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Giants are pretty much set for who is the starter in the Big Apple too, they brought in veteran Russell Wilson to fill that role.
Yet, if we are to award the starting role to what quarterback has played the best in the Giants two preseason wins, rookie Jaxson Dart would have to be considered. It is interesting to note that in 2012, when Wilson was a rookie with the Seattle Seahawks, Pete Carroll and his organization had made a major off-season commitment financially to Matt Flynn in bringing him over from Green Bay to be their starting quarterback.
Then, during the preseason, the third-round draft choice out of Wisconsin beat out the veteran. Wilson opened the season behind center for the Seahawks and earned Hall of Fame credentials over the ensuing 10 seasons which included a pair of Super Bowl appearances. Now Dart is looking to unseat Wilson with the Giants in a similar fashion.
Unlikely.
But that is not to say Dart won’t have the motivation to show his best tonight against the Patriots while moving ahead of Tommy DeVito on the Giants depth chart. Meanwhile, the Patriots will probably limit Maye’s playing time tonight which means the Giants will be up against Joshua Dobbs and Ben Woolridge for most of this preseason skirmish.
The public and wise guys are seeing this game significantly differently.
The public loves the Patriots, like them more and more while the books shift them from an opening line that had them favored by 2½ points to currently being a 6½ point underdog. That’s right, while the public is backing the Patriots with nearly 70% of the action the line has shifted nine points the other way.
Why?
Big wagers on the Giants and public action on the Patriots.
Now, nine points is a big hurdle to clear. In a typical NFL season 7% of the point spread winners are shifted from the opening to the closing line. Most of those moves are a point or two, so this dramatic of a shift is rare. Even less common when 70% of the action is on the side that is getting the extra points on the spread.
Which leaves us with this choice, take the huge benefit on the line with the number and line up with the public, or side with the wise guys and book move. In the final hours before tonight's kickoff the line has been trimmed to five points.
Oh, when put that way, the choice is clear.
Qoxhi Picks: New York Giants (-5) over New England Patriots