I think we’ve hooked our perfect catch.
In the National Football League there are teams that are just too darn good for my liking. Squads that can waltz into a clear trap and still come out a winner.
Then there are those squads sprinkled through the league that are just too darn bad for my liking. Squads that can have all the advantages on Qoxhi charts from a motivational perspective and still come up short on game day.
Handicapping is like politics, it is best when the extremes are ignored.
No, the teams I want are the ones in the middle. Those teams that are good enough to take advantage of a positive situation, and still not good enough to overcome a bad spot. In a typical year there are five teams that are too good and five teams that are awful on this chart. What I focus on is the 22 teams in the middle.
I think we have spotted our dead center on this chart.
Consider this. On opening day the Atlanta Falcons hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game that had conflicting factors to point one way or the other. The Buccaneers have won the NFC South Division four years in a row and share that grouping of four teams with the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and the Falcons.
When Tampa visited Atlanta in their season opener, the Bucs were defending champs which swung an advantage to the Falcons. But Atlanta had downed the Buccaneers in both their head-to-head matchups in 2024 and still went on to lose their division race to the Bucs. A double loss one year in a competitive matchup lends credence to the two-time loser coming back with a win in their first meeting of a new season.
That shifted a significant factor in the Buccaneers favor.
The books saw it that way too, that is conflicting factors in this game represented by a pick ‘em on the point spread.
Then they played the game. The Falcons had a chance to tie the game at the end of regulation against Baker Mayfield and company but their kicker, Younghoe Koo, missed the field goal and the Buccaneers got out of town with a 23-20 victory. Hours later, the Falcons organization also sent Koo out of town and replaced him with Parker Romo.
Okay, a stinging loss for the Falcons and a hard-fought win for the Buccaneers in a game that both pregame and as the game progressed could have gone either way. It didn’t go the Falcons way, so they should be pumped for their second week game when they travel to Minnesota to meet a Vikings team coming off a primetime victory against the Chicago Bears. The Vikings trailed Chicago at Soldier Field for three quarters then rallied with 21 fourth quarter points to win the game, 27-24.
Now, if the Falcons are not a bad team, and the Vikings are not an elite team, their Week Two matchup in Minnesota should fall Atlanta’s way.
It did.
We didn’t know before the game whether Minnesota was an elite team or not, one of the squads deserving of a top five spot on our charts. They did win 14 games last season.
Turns out, two things were confirmed during the second week in Minnesota. The Vikings are not an elite team this year, the Falcons pinned them with a 22-6 loss, and the Falcons are not a bad team, as shown in their first two games this season.
After their road win in Minnesota, the Falcons behind second-year quarterback Michale Penix, Jr., headed to Carolina for their second division game of the season. The Panthers had come up short in their first two games, losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Arizona Cardinals on the road. Now, in their home opener, we are going to find out if they are a bad team, one landing among the five worst teams in the NFL this season.
If they are at least a middle squad, they win here. They did. They did it in convincing fashion as Bryce Young and company blew away the Falcons, 30-0.
Okay. Now we know two things for sure. The Panthers are not a bottom team, and the Falcons are a middle team. In fact, the Falcons are dead middle, rank them 16th in the 32-team league.
We can be confident that the Falcons will take advantage of good situations and fall when the deck is stacked against them. This week, we find Atlanta in a highly favorable situation. They are coming off an embarrassing whitewash loss and meeting a team that last week proved they could win without Jayden Daniels running their offense.
Last Sunday, the Washington Commanders needed to start backup veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota while Daniels rested a knee sprain. Dan Quinn’s team was fully inspired to compensate for the loss of Daniels, and Mariota reaped the rewards as Washington rolled to a convincing 41-24 win over the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.
Now what?
Well, the status of Daniels remains day-to-day, but the Commanders organization is confident that even if he remains sidelined another week, they can win with Mariota running their offense.
That is a big problem for Washington. They won easily over the Raiders last week because they weren’t sure they could win without their dynamic quarterback and were only favored by a field goal at home against a suspect Raiders team. Now they have lost the motivational edge that had them on their toes to compensate for the loss of Daniels and think they can win easily with his backup behind center.
If Daniels was to make a return to the lineup, the Commanders would be way too confident and in a trap. If Mariota gets a second straight start, they now think they can win but won’t have the motivation that sparked their triumph over the Silver and Black.
And here comes the perfect team to cause all sorts of havoc in the Commanders game plan. A team we know is good enough to take advantage of a promising situation … like this one.
Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (+2½) over Washington Commanders