For the past 20 National Football League seasons I was a guest on Tom Tolbert’s show which aired on KNBR-Radio in San Francisco. After 28 years with the station, Tolbert parted ways with his former employer last October and this season he has introduced a new podcast appropriately called, The Tom Tolbert Show. Each Friday I am a guest on Tom’s show, and because of our geographical location the San Francisco 49ers are always a point of interest.
Two weeks ago, we were discussing the 49ers rash of injuries that have sidelined a number of their star players from both sides of the line. Most notably Brock Purdy and George Kittle were missing from the offense, but the topic two weeks ago was the loss of one of the best defensive linemen in the game, Nick Bosa.
“That’s going to hurt,” we both agreed and I went on to add, “They still have one impact defensive player with linebacker Fred Warner.”
Last week, Warner was injured and is out for the season. So, while the offense will get back the services of Kittle tonight, Purdy is still missing for at least one more week, their defense is truly weakened. Without Bosa or Warner available for the year this San Francisco team has holes in their stop unit that didn’t exist before the crippling injuries.
Tonight, they host the Atlanta Falcons and are favored on the point spread. A line that opened on Monday with the 49ers favored by three points and a line that has been shaved to currently sit at one point. By kickoff, our indicators show the game will go off as a pick ‘em.
The line move is in conflict with the betting action on this game. The 49ers were collecting nearly 60% of the wagers even when the line was three. How does a line move three points down while the majority of wagers are on the favorite?