Before the maintenance crew was finished clearing up the graffiti from the Seattle Seahawks win over the New England Patriots in February, the Las Vegas oddsmakers had posted their numbers for Super Bowl LXI.
The game is scheduled for Valentine’s Day at SoFi Stadium in 2027. If you check their odds, you will note that the Los Angeles Rams have a very good chance of playing in a Super Bowl played in their home stadium. It has happened twice before. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium to complete the 2020 season and the Rams downed the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi to win Super Bowl LVI.
The early lines for the upcoming Super Bowl is an indicator of team strengths and there are three major events that will shift those perceptions on the calendar. The most influential factor on Super Bowl odds is not on the calendar but occur when teams suffer critical injuries.
The first date that will see an adjustment in these lines has already occurred, that is the start of the free agency season on March 11. As teams shifted their rosters with key acquisitions every sports media outlet was quick to grade their participation. Some teams by media counts had earned an “A”, while some teams were giving failing grades.
A more reliable measurement of the anticipated success or failure of team acquisitions and losses through free agency is to watch the Super Bowl odds. Which teams had their perceived chances to win it all enhanced on decreased before and after the initial fee agency period?
Two teams scored high in both the media reports and their work was reflected in a shift in their Super Bowl odds. The Los Angeles Rams were by many the best team in football last year, except they lost to the Seattle Seahawks twice down the stretch. First in a regular season overtime thriller in Seattle and then in the NFC Championship Game also played at Lumen Field.
It took little more than just a casual look at the game to realize that the Rams troubles last year were pinned to a suspect secondary. As prolific as their offense was, they were always in danger of getting beat over the top and surrendering leads. To plug this liability, the Rams acquired the best defensive back on the Kansas City Chiefs roster, Trent McDuffie. The move shifted the Rams Super Bowl odds from eight to seven to one and now has them posted as the favorite to win it all next February.
Another team that is still looking for their first Super Bowl win with the talented Lamar Jackson running their offense, is the Baltimore Ravens. They made the controversial move of firing their head coach of the past 18 seasons after a last day of the regular season loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers prevented them from cracking the 2025 playoff field.
Then, they replaced John Harbaugh with first-year head coach Jesse Minter, who was near the top of the list of candidates for all ten teams in search of a new head coach. He had a strong reputation and enjoyed recent success as defensive coordinator in Los Angeles on Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers staff. While the trade for defensive lineman Maxx Crosby was rescinded due to medical reports, the Ravens then strengthened their defensive line with the signing of Trey Hendrickson, who anchored the talented Detroit Lions defense in recent seasons.
The media loved these critical signings by top tier NFL teams, but how did Las Vegas view the moves?
Very well.
Not only did the Rams move to the favorite, but the Ravens Super Bowl odds also shifted moving from 12 to 1 odds to 10-1.
The Rams and Ravens have won the free agency signings by most accounts, but who lost ground?
We’ll review the teams that took a hit in free agency in next week’s column.