There was a time when picking the defending Super Bowl Champion at home in the Thursday night openers was automatic. The tradition of opening the season on a Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champ hosting the game began in 2004, and the home teams won the first eight games in the series with a point spread record of 5-1-2.
The first defending champ to lose while hosting the Thursday night opener was the New York Giants in 2012. They were downed on their home field by the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, while favored by 3½ points. That didn’t have to be a surprise given the Giants were perhaps the weakest team in NFL history to win a Super Bowl. During their 2011 regular season they were outscored while tallying 394 points and allowing 400. That remains through 60 Super Bowls to be the only one won by a team that was outscored in the regular season.
Since the Cowboys upset the Giants four other defending champs have been beaten by their opponents. And, like the Cowboys win, there were unique circumstances that led to the champs losing. The most obvious was the defending champion Baltimore Ravens losing to the Denver Broncos to open the 2013 season.
That game, scheduled to be hosted by the Super Bowl XLVII champs, had to be moved to Mile High Stadium because the Major League Baseball Baltimore Orioles had a scheduled game on the night of the NFL opener. Both teams couldn’t play at the same time because while they had separate stadiums the facilities shared the same parking lot. The schedule makers didn’t do the defending champions any favors. They scheduled the game in Denver where the Ravens had upset the Broncos the prior January while double-digit underdogs.
Peyton Manning and company had a chance to get revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoff hunt and got to do it on their home field. They didn’t miss the chance, whopping the visiting defending champs by three touchdowns, 49-27.
The New England Patriots, following their monumental comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, appeared to still be celebrating that victory when they opened the 2017 campaign with a poor defensive showing in a 42-27 home loss to the underdog Kansas City Chiefs.
It would be five years before another defending champ was beaten on their home field. The Los Angeles Rams, who had edged the Cincinnati Bengals the prior February in Super Bowl LVI, opened what proved to be the worst season ever for a defending Super Bowl winner with a lopsided home loss to the Buffalo Bills, 31-10. A year later, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a nailbiter by one point to the emerging Detroit Lions, 21-20.
In the most recent five openers on the champs' home field the linemakers have shifted the straight up winner twice and the defending Super Bowl Champs are 1 and 4 against the point spread.
Has the pendulum swung? Are the Super Bowl champions sitting ducks instead of sure things?
What I have noticed is that bloated lines are always tough to challenge, like last year when the Philadelphia Eagles were forced to lay 8½ points while hosting their NFC East Division rival Dallas Cowboys. Even though Dallas got off to a rocky start in Brian Schottenheimer's first-year as the Dallas head coach, the Cowboys had enough to stay within the spread while losing to the Eagles, 24-20.
Tonight, is the third time the opening game pits the prior two Super Bowl combatants against each other in a season opening game. There have been 11 regular season games that matched the prior season’s Super Bowl combatants against each other. Revenge has not proven to be as important of a factor as talent. The Super Bowl winner has gone on to win eight of the 11 following season rematches.
As I see it, in order for a visitor to win in the opener against the Super Bowl Champion they need unique circumstances to aid their cause or a bloated point spread to shift the winner.
I thought tonight’s opener was going to fall on the bloated line eliminator … but it hasn’t. The opening number, posted before the teams even arrived for training camp, had the Seahawks favored by five points. As soon as it was posted, the line was shaved to 3½ points, and after sitting there for a few weeks, it has now dropped to three in most outlets.
I think both the Patriots and Seahawks could have a reversal of fortunes this season. But the more likely squad to stumble is the team on the road tonight. The Patriots, following back-to-back seasons in which they won only four games, parlayed a first-year head coach and unproven young quarterback into the Super Bowl appearance last season.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks benefited from the stellar play of quarterback Sam Darnold, who became only the second quarterback in history to lead his team to 14 regular season wins in consecutive years. The other, Tom Brady, did it with his dominant Patriots squad, while Darnold did it for two different franchises.
Amazing.
Yep, the Seahawks may stumble this year, and the Patriots more likely will. But in the opener, there are no special circumstances to prevent Seattle from adding to the defending Super Bowl Champions winning record.
Qoxhi Picks: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over New England Patriots