As we prepare for our 46th season of delivering winning point spread decisions to trusting clients through Qoxhi Picks, we are once again faced with the challenge of staying ahead of the sharpest minds in the game … the individuals that set the point spreads and consistently win while giving customers the choice of either side.
Why do the books beat the general betting public?
First, they have the built in advantage of paying less for winners than they collect on losers. The vigorish, the cost of making a wager, is routinely 10%. Wager $110 to win $100 and stand the risk of losing the $110 on losses. To many, this does not seem a big deal, but my friend Tom Tolbert relays it to his listeners in these terms. If one was to win 53% of their bets with equal wager amounts to attempt to win $100 they would show a profit after 100 completed results of $130.
If, on the other hand, with equal wagers of $110 and 53% losses over the course of a season, those results would generate a loss of $1,130.
That is not the only advantage the books bank each season.
They also have the talent and experience to set point spreads on games that often lead the general public to the wrong side of a proposition. Too few points seemingly on underdogs that are poised to win and apparently too many points on favorites in position to romp.
Consider this. There was a time when we first opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981, and for the ten years prior to opening the service while we studied point spreads and tendencies, that home team underdogs were consistent point spread winners. Each season in the NFL about 80 games kickoff with a home team not giving points on the spread. In a typical season, about 34% of those home underdogs will win the game straight-up, and years ago the straight-up losers were fed point spreads that turned the advantage to the home team plus the points.
In the 1970s, the 34% straight up winners had the point spread turn the straight-up losers into wager winners 56% of the time. That is a 22% shift. Bettors only need to win more than 52.38% of equal wagers to generate a bottom line profit. Once the home underdog edge became common knowledge in the betting community, the books pulled the rug out from under that advantage with a slight shift in the points given home underdogs.
The books do not leave a known public advantage hanging for too long. Not since the decade between 1991 and 2000 has wagering on home underdogs generated a bottom-line profit. In that decade 40% of the home underdogs won straight-up, the highest figure in any decade, and the point spread affected the point spread result 15% of the time. In other words, home underdogs won 55% of the wagers.
They haven’t had a winning decade since.
While the straight-up winners in games involving home underdogs have remained consistent, the 40% was an anomaly and about 5% higher than the average, the point spread results on home underdogs since 2011 have been 35% straight-up winners and 50% point spread triumphs. The inherent home dog advantage erased by a slight adjustment in the spreads posted on those games.
Now here is the next caveat that feeds the books bottom line success. The public lines up on games where one side appears to have the greatest advantage. Seems right … but those are the same games that often have the greatest motivational edge with the underdog. Like the wagering public, the players perceive when they are most assured of a victory before kickoff. I observed firsthand while with the Raiders how our players prepared for tough challenges and how they could lose that edge when playing a team they thought their talent alone would dominate.
There was a time when I fed my clients picks on Sunday morning that they thought were “nuts” and they were hesitant to risk money on. But week in and week out these selections generated point spread wins nearly 70% of the time. They called me a sharpie.
Nothing lasts forever. This method that produced results in 1994 where I picked two games a week on the San Francisco 49ers highlight show and produced a season record of 27-12-1 against the spread have been somewhat leveled by the books adjusting lines to minimize some advantages. In 2012 and 2013, I posted a top pick each week in the Reno Gazette Journal and compiled point spread records of 15-3 and 12-6. Today, new edges need to be uncovered to generate equally strong results.
Once my method of taking the best lines against strong public opinion was eroding the books profits, they went to work on reducing the success of “sharp” money. The books were no longer as concerned about the general public wagers that were dwarfed by the wager amounts leveraged by the wise guys. They went to work to blunt the success of “smart” money.
In recent years, the books have moved lines not based on the public money but against where the “sharp” money is landing. This tactic requires us to find a new method to stay in front of the curve and generate winning seasons for Qoxhi clients.
It starts in September, and since 2019 we have opened the first four weeks of each campaign with a combined point spread mark of 15-7-2. This advantage is gained because we are wagering on our work that points to team direction while the general public is still betting on last year’s performances.
Winning methods that generated results the books built guards against have shifted where the real advantages are now. In the coming season we can be most sure of two things:
The books are going to win … and so are Qoxhi clients.
This year, we have added a feature that will allow all subscribers early releases to take advantage of lines that will increase bottom line profits an expected 12 to 18 percent. The books are a worthy opponent, they will beat the general public, but we are poised to churn out profits while capitalizing on one of the elements that can’t be erased by a shifted point spread; a motivated underdog poised to win.