A week ago I attended a book event at the Lafayette Library that featured sports agent Leigh Steinberg. The movie “Jerry McGuire” was modeled after his highly ethical career that has emphasized more than just getting top dollar for his clients but giving back to the athletes communities.
After the presentation I stopped by one of the local bars. I’m not a big drinker, but I am a glutton for the conversations that take place in this scene. While there, the Thursday night game between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills was shown on the multiple television feeds.
This is where it got fun. A guy that appeared in his mid 40’s wearing an Oakland Raiders cap offered his method to make money betting on the NFL. “All you have to do every week is bet against the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans.” Those two struggling franchises had both lost their opening games by scores of 34-10 and 23-10 respectively.
So, how did his method to make money wagering on the NFL pan out last week?
Both the Browns and Titans were point spread underdogs and Cleveland beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while the Titans won on the spread in a close loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Yeah, here is the point, betting on last week’s results is a losing proposition.
Perhaps the Browns and Titans will go on to have bad seasons, but because they are downgraded so dramatically in the public eye they will catch a couple more wins by virtue of generous point spreads.
This week, off their good showings last Sunday, the Browns are only a field goal favorite against the Carolina Panthers, and the Titans are getting only 2½ points for their game at MetLife Stadium against the New York Giants. Had the Browns and Titans got blown out last week those spreads would be higher. Taking a bad team off a win is not an ideal time based both on motivation and spread value.
On the opposite side, taking a good team off a loss is most often when you are going to get both a reduced point spread and the motivation that comes off a loss.
Take the Detroit Lions for example.
Two years ago, they were arguably the best team in the National Football League. They rolled into the playoffs with a high scoring juggernaut and were eight-point favorites over the Washington Commanders to open their postseason.
While the Commanders had the motivation and the Lions were overconfident, Dan Quinn’s underdog Washington squad surprised the Lions while handing them a 45-31 loss at Ford Field. The following Sunday, the public backed the underdog Commanders thinking after their win over the Lions they could give the Philadelphia Eagles a game.
They couldn’t. Philadelphia won the NFC Championship Game, 55-23, and two weeks later captured Super Bowl LIX with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now for using our theory to generate a win this Sunday.
The Lions haven’t been back to the playoffs since that crushing loss to the Commanders. This year, I suspect they will crack the postseason field even though their opening two games have been less than dominating efforts.
They needed to survive a two-point attempt on opening day to edge the visiting New Orleans Saints, 31-30. Last week, in Buffalo, they got beat much more soundly than the final score of 41-31 in favor of the Bills would indicate.
Now they go back home and meet the New York Jets, who beat the Titans to open their 2026 campaign and took the Green Bay Packers to overtime last Sunday in a 20-17 loss.
If the Jets had gotten clobbered in their first two games and the Lions had maintained their three touchdowns advantage over the Saints on opening day, the line on this game would be higher than it is. Currently, Detroit is posted as a 6½ point favorite.
While Detroit hasn’t set the football world on fire yet … they do have the firepower to light up the scoreboard. Their opening win over the Saints was against a much-improved New Orleans team that has not yet had public opinion catch up to their actual talent. Buffalo was coming off a hard-fought win against the Houston Texans and then opened their new stadium when the Lions came calling. This added up to a good spot for the home team.
Just like this week is a real good spot for the home team when the Lions host the Jets.
Qoxhi Picks: Detroit Lions (-6½) over New York Jets