Season opening Super Bowl odds showed the Los Angeles Chargers at 17 to 1 and their longtime rival in the AFC West Division, the Las Vegas Raiders, 150 to 1. Their season win totals offered the Chargers at 9½ and the Raiders at 6½.
Those numbers reflect a gap between expectations for the Chargers and hopes for fans of the Silver and Black in Vegas. In fact, if these two teams would have met last week in Los Angeles the Chargers would have been an 11½ point favorite. We can compute that by seeing what their point spread price was in their opening games against the Miami Dolphins in Las Vegas and the Chargers meeting with the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium.
Then they played their first games.
The Raiders beat the visiting Miami Dolphins by two touchdowns, 27-13, and the Chargers lost at home by an almost equal losing margin to the Arizona Cardinals, 26-14.
This week, in Los Angeles, the Chargers are laying five points less on the point spread that they would have a week ago before they were upset at home by the Cardinals. The Raiders two touchdown margin win over the Dolphins had them open as a trimmed seven-point underdog for their contest against the Chargers on Sunday. The public, having seen the Raiders win and the Chargers lose on opening day, have cut that line an additional half-point to where today Las Vegas is only getting 6½ points on the line.
Warranted? Or overreaction?
That is always the question early in a season. The Chargers dismal home effort against the Cardinals had critics from all sides identifying weaknesses in Jim Harbaugh’s team. One football analyst, who I have a great deal of respect for, identified the change at offensive coordinator as a major problem for the Chargers. He asserted that the gameplan offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel installed, which calls for quick passes, doesn't take advantage of quarterback Justin Herbert's big play arm.
Lose and you get criticized.
McDaniel, who had a successful run in the same position with the San Francisco 49ers and served as head coach of the Miami Dolphins with less success over the past four campaigns, may be looking to limit Herbert from the punishment he has endured in recent seasons. In 2025, he was sacked 54 times. Only the 55 suffered by Geno Smith and Cam Ward of the Raiders and Tennessee Titans respectively were thrown for losses more often.
The punishment Herbert has suffered during a season may be one of the reasons he has come up short in January. He has been unable to win in any of his three postseason tries. While the system is new to him this season, that is not the only coaching change the Chargers have had on Harbaugh’s staff this year. Their respected defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, has moved on as the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens. In all, the Chargers have ten new coaches working for Harbaugh this season.
It may take a little time for this new staff to coordinate their efforts to best serve their desire to win. But even in their early stages, coming off a surprise home loss to the Arizona Cardinals and trailing both the Kansas City Chiefs and Raiders in their AFC West Division race, is a perfect time for the more talented Chargers to pick up their first victory.
Are the Chargers going to drop to oh and two while the Raiders race to two and oh on the Chargers home field?
Not likely.
Will the Chargers be dominant enough to cover the near touchdown point spread?
Probably.
Qoxhi Picks: Los Angeles Chargers (-6½) over Las Vegas Raiders