The dictionary defines dilemma as a difficult situation that forces a person to choose between two or more options, usually when all choices are unpleasant or unfavorable.
I define dilemma as having two football teams that are headed in opposite directions that meet each other at a time when those directions appear poised for a u-turn.
For all the right reasons, I do not expect the New England Patriots to have a very good season in 2026. They cashed all their chips last year when they rose from back-to-back last place finishes with only four wins in both 2023 and 2024, to winning the American Football Conference and meeting the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.
When a team rises from last place to the playoffs, they almost always have a severe hit on their next year’s record. The reasons are pinned to both physical and motivational factors. When they rose from the bottom to the top they were buoyed by the need to overcome and were playing a last place schedule. Once they reach the top, particularly when they do it all of a sudden, they then face a first place schedule and have the tougher challenge of needing to maintain success as opposed to first achieving it.
Yep, I think the Patriots are in for a disappointing 2026 campaign. I was surprised they did as well as they did in their opener against the Seattle Seahawks, but they ultimately lost and the next week got the advantage of playing a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is not nearly as good as their reputation. The Patriots won their only home game of this season over Pittsburgh, 20-3.
Last week, off that lopsided win against the Steelers in Foxboro, they got hampered on the road by the highly regarded Jacksonville Jaguars, 35-6. That’s the kind of result I would be expecting from Mike Vrabel’s men this year.
This week, the Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen and company are on a totally opposite season long trajectory. They have won their first three games and could well be on their way to a Super Bowl and the chance of winning it all in their fifth try. Of course, the Bills lost the Super Bowl four straight seasons beginning in 1990.
The Bills have done little to erase their prospects for winning it all this year through September. They beat their first two quality opponents by downing the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions. Last week, in a real tough motivational spot at home against the winless Los Angeles Chargers, the Bills offense turned the ball over five times and still Joe Brady’s squad ground out a win and point spread cover, 24-16.
Do you see the dilemma yet?
This week, in Buffalo, the Patriots come up as a solid point spread play. They are coming off a blow out loss and playing an undefeated divisional opponent while getting the benefit of a bloated point spread. The Bills are favored by seven points in this one, which is a line that would have been lower if this game took place in any of the first three weeks of the season.
In other words, the Patriots are viewed at their low point of the season and the Bills at their high point.
Historically, this is where a high rated team takes a dip and allows the team playing at its lowest rating to take advantage of the situation.
Now do you see the dilemma?
The Patriots are scheduled for a down year this season but are in a great spot this week against a team pitched to over exceed on the season. The choice is to lean towards the season long projections or capitalize on this unique situation that puts New England in a surprise spot to upset the talented Bills.
Come to think of it, this might not be a dilemma after all, but simply a beautiful point spread proposition ripe for the picking. In the real world, unique factors properly evaluated are always more reliable than a long term assumed projection.
Qoxhi Picks: New England Patriots (+7) over Buffalo Bills