As we close in on the halfway point of the 2026 National Football League season, we can see some teams have overachieved, and some have suffered severe drops. We can see this easily with opening Super Bowl odds compared to current numbers.
It is more common to see a team that was among the favorites to drop off because all it takes is a key injury or two. That is the case with the Baltimore Ravens, who have lost Lamar Jackson for presumably the rest of the season. They opened as one of the favorites to win it all at 10 to 1, today they are 150 to 1.
You think that is a big drop off? How about the Los Angeles Chargers who opened at 17 to 1 and now after losing all their games entering play this week are posted with 1,000 to 1 odds. Two teams have suffered severe drops not based on injuries, but rather simply underwhelming play. The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans are now both 50 to 1. They opened the season with 25 to 1 and 18 to 1 odds respectively.
Yes, having a team disappoint is common; less common is a team jumping up in their prospects for a Super Bowl win. The Minnesota Vikings opened the season with 50 to 1 odds and now, after winning six of their first seven games and possessing the best defense in the league, have their odds of winning it all sliced to 22 to 1.
Still, the most dramatic improvement in odds belongs to the Chicago Bears. They came into the season with reasonable odds for a team to win it all at 24 to 1, but after eight weeks of play and the acquisition of defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, the Bears are among the current favorites at 8 to 1.
Everything seems right for the Bears.