Sometimes you hear something you just can’t believe.
Today, thanks to available research tools, we can follow-up on claims that seem highly suspect and prove or disprove their validity. For example, this week on my weekly appearance with Tom Tolbert on his podcast he said, “In the last 30 years there have been preseason Super Bowl odds of 5 to 1 or less 20 times.”
“Really,” I thought without much concern for the stat, until he delivered the punch line, “You know how many of those favored Super Bowl teams went on to win?” He didn’t wait for my answer before saying, “zero.”
Now, I avoid making my Super Bowl pick the favorite and certainly not when they are offering odds as little as 5 to 1 or less. But I didn’t know how wise that move was while always looking for a team that I think is in the sweet spot, that is between 12 and 24 to one. These are consistently teams good enough to win and with a payout that makes winning very profitable.
I still wanted to confirm Tom’s claim, and you know what I discovered? Since 1996, there have been 23 teams that have opened with odds 5 to 1 or shorter including this season’s Los Angeles Rams. None of those previous 22 squads have gone on to win a Super Bowl. Nine have earned a trip to the Super Bowl, but they have all lost. Three highly favored teams failed to even make the playoffs.
In other words, being the favorite to win it all has never proven to be odds a team could live up to.