Because my method of locating point spread winners relies mostly on motivational factors, by design I don’t get to take advantage of skyrocketing teams that run off a series of victories. Once the public finds these teams my numbers don’t indicate point spread value.
What I can take advantage of is teams on the rise at their initial launching … like the New Orleans Saints this September. The Saints found their franchise quarterback down the stretch of the 2025 campaign with the emergence of Tyler Shough. A second-round draft choice last year.
Kellen Moore was in his first season as the Saints Head Coach. The one-time NFL quarterback made a more prominent reputation as a quarterback coach. He had a brilliant college career, posting a 50-3 record during his four years at Boise State. Still, primarily because of his height, he went undrafted.
The Detroit Lions signed him as an undrafted free agent, and he spent three seasons with the Lions as a backup. He followed that with three seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, still not established as a starting National Football League quarterback. But, at the end of his playing days, Moore made a quick transaction to coaching.
In 2018, he served as the Cowboys quarterback coach and the following season was elevated to offensive coordinator at only 30 years of age. He followed that assignment with one season serving in the same role with the Los Angeles Chargers and then for the 2024 campaign was hired as offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles.
It was in his season with the Eagles that Moore received national attention while guiding the Eagles to an average of 27.2 points per game and designed an offense that opened holes to allow Saquon Barkley to rush for over 2,000 yards. The Eagles capped their season with a victory in Super Bowl LIX.
His success at every coaching stop had New Orleans select him as their head coach before the 2025 season. With the injury forced retirement of their quarterback, Derek Carr, the first job for Moore was to find a starting quarterback. Camp opened with three candidates for the job; Slough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener.
Second-year pro Rattler won the job over rookie Slough and Haener was cut. After eight games last season New Orleans was one win and seven losses. Moore decided to make a mid-season change and inserted Slough as the Saints Starter. The results shifted and Slough led Moore’s team to four wins over their final five games … and six straight point spread triumphs over the final half-dozen contests.
Now entrenched as the Saints starting quarterback, in the opener this season Slough led a furious comeback on the road to overcome a 21 point second-half deficit with the game decided in the Lions favor on a failed two-point conversion in overtime, 31-30. Last week, in his second start of the season, Slough led the Saints to a win over the highly regarded Baltimore Ravens on the road.
The Saints open their home schedule tomorrow against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Silver and Black come into this game with a surprising 2-0 mark, wins gained over the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers.
What that sets up in the Big Easy tomorrow is either the Raiders moving to 3-0 and the Saints dropping to 1-2 or, and you might read through the lines that I think this is much more likely, New Orleans and Las Vegas ending this weekend both with two wins and one loss.
There is still value in the line with the Saints this week … a fact that I think will soon melt away once more people figure out just how good Moore’s team is. We won’t be around for the long flight up, but we’ll hook our wagon to the launching pad this Sunday.
Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (-3) over Las Vegas Raiders.