My wife and I celebrated our 35th wedding anniversary with a vacation in Europe. We had been on the road for almost three weeks and whether in France or Italy, whenever we sat down to eat in a restaurant an English speaking waiter welcomed us.

How did they know we were American? Why didn’t they send someone to our table that spoke in their native language? Perhaps we gave ourselves away when they asked how many were in our party and I said two. But I wanted to know if they would spot us as Americans even if I didn’t say anything before we were seated. One night when they asked how many would be for dinner; I held up two fingers with a friendly smile. They led us to a nice table, and I hadn’t said a word when our waiter greeted us in his Italian accent with the words, “I’m Antonio, how can I serve you tonight?”

“You can start by telling me how you knew we would be English speaking? How did you know we were Americans?”

He smiled, pointed to the Adidas I was wearing, and said, “You are wearing socks.”

Do only Americans wear socks?

I didn’t know that, still not sure of it, but it was the clue he used to identify Pam and I as tourists from the states.

Seems an insignificant clue, but it worked to pin us as Americans.

For me, the National Football League works like that. I will pick up clues on what a team is likely to do because of a player or coach comment and shifts in the point spread. If I can find a line that is moving against public opinion for years those selections spun gold. That is, if the public is betting on the New England Patriots and the line on the Seattle Seahawks is going up, lay the big line.

The regular season schedule for the NFL was released last week and with it came the opening numbers for each game. The first line posted for the opening Thursday night game between the two teams that met in Super Bowl LX last February had the homesteading defending Super Bowl Champions favored by 3½ points. Before some of the books even had that opening number posted, the line had jumped two points. The Seahawks are now favored by 5½ points.

This line would point to a sure winner if the public was betting on the Patriots.

They are not.

But a two-point shift can be interpreted another way, the books are fishing for New England money.

Rule number one in beating the books is not to give them what they want. If they look to lure you to one side with a bloated point spread, it is most often wise to lay the big line.

That is the case here … I do believe.

By my numbers, the Patriots were in for a rough season this year based on a long-time pattern for a team that leaps from last place one year to the postseason. They have problems the next year particularly when they win a game or more in the playoffs.

I consider the leap made was spiked by the motivation to overcome a last place finish and low expectations. That worked for the surprise team one season, but after succeeding with that circumstance the next year they are looking to build on that success, which is a lot tougher to do than it is to first achieve success.

One year they excelled with low expectations and the following season they are saddled with high expectations. Most often, their expectations now exceed their actual talent level and they collapse … particularly against the point spread.

Last year, the Washington Commanders fell into this hole. They had risen from last place the prior season to the NFC Championship Game in 2024. They had high expectations coming into last season and only the New York Giants four-win season kept them from returning to the cellar in the NFC East Division with a record of 5-12.

We anticipated a similar stumble for the Patriots even before they lost the Super Bowl, but their off-season has thrown even more wrinkles into their upcoming campaign. The drama around Head Coach Mike Vrabel can’t help but be a distraction and one that they will use as an excuse for their horrible 2026 campaign.

It’s a factor, but not the only reason.

The Patriots are doomed this coming season, and it will start with a lopsided loss to Sam Darnold and company in the regular season opener.

Qoxhi Picks: Seattle Seahawks (-5 ½) over New England Patriots