“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” is how Charles Dickens opened his novel A Tale of Two Cities. While he wasn’t thinking about the New England Patriots and New York Giants in 1859, his opening line applies to these two teams in 2025.
It has been the best of times for the Patriots and their first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. Tonight, the Patriots could accomplish something that has never been done in professional football history, that is score 23 or more points and allow 23 or less points in ten straight games.
Why might that be significant? The five previous teams to do that in at least seven straight games went on to win their league championship. The Philadelphia Eagles did it in 1949 and won the NFL Championship. In 1961, the Houston Oilers of the American Football League did it for a record nine straight weeks and then went on to win the AFC title. In the Super Bowl era, three teams did it before the Patriots this season, they were the 1984 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams, and 2024 Philadelphia Eagles, all Super Bowl winners.
Does that mean the Patriots are going to win Super Bowl LX? Nothing is for sure, but it certainly is a road sign this season that points in that direction.
While the Patriots are enjoying the best of times, the Giants are not.
In November, the Giants fired two coaches. First out was head coach Brian DaBoll, and two weeks later, after the Giants blew a lead to the Detroit Lions and lost, defensive coordinator Shane Bowen was shown the door.
How has that worked out for the long-suffering franchise in New York? Or should I say, one of the long-suffering franchises in New York?
We’ll find out tonight, when New York brings their sometimes exciting play to Foxboro to battle the team with the best record in football. I say the “sometimes exciting” Giants because despite dismissing their head coach and defensive coordinator, the Giants have had some shining moments this season. They battled the Dallas Cowboys in second week action in Dallas, finally losing by a field goal.
Four weeks later, the Giants pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season by downing the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles in a nationally televised primetime Thursday night contest. New York also built a big lead and lost by a single point to the talented Denver Broncos in the Mile High City. The Giants have also apparently discovered their projected quarterback of the future, Jaxson Dart, who has since lost his top receiver and leading running back to injuries. Namely Malik Nabors and Cam Skattebo.
The Giants defense is not as special as their front line personnel should dictate, and the revolving coaching staff has a big job tonight to get their troops ready to battle arguably the best team in the NFL.
So, take the Patriots tonight, give the touchdown on the line, and laugh all the way to the bank?
Well, not so fast.
The gravy train that has been the Patriots this year might have already left the station. It is difficult to win and win and win without getting complacent at some time. It may be tonight for Vrabel’s team.
Last week, the Patriots won their ninth straight game but didn’t cover a similar point spread against the Cincinnati Bengals. In their last four games, all straight-up wins, their point spread record is 1-2-1.
This is a case where the books saddle the best teams with point spreads they have trouble covering. When a team is as successful as New England the public gravitates to them like a kid goes for the candy left unattended on the table, and the books know how to turn that action in their favor.
By our numbers, the Patriots will next be a good bet after they suffer a straight-up loss. In the meantime, the books are likely to win with their opponents.
So, take the Giants tonight?
Not while they are trapped in the worst of times.