Last Sunday morning, after we released our three rated Sunday selections, I got a text from a longtime client. “Houston? What are we with them this year, 0 and 3?”
While the communication may have seemed a little disappointed in us, again backing the Texans, who were not exactly 0-3 this season when we pegged them, but it was no better at 1 and 4. Our picks on the Texans this year have been as agonizing for us as it has been disappointing for DeMeco Ryans’ team. The losses the Texans have suffered this year have mostly been close; one point against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a touchdown the following week against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a field goal two weeks ago at home versus the Denver Broncos.
All those games were winnable, and the Texans were on the wrong side of all of them. Our only win before last week with Houston was in Week Eight against the San Francisco 49ers. So, while the text from my client was warranted based on our past failures with the Texans, the future is what we are betting on.
Historically, teams that fail against the point spread for the first half of a season are consistently good during the final half of a campaign. There are a pair of factors that feed this pattern.
When teams need a win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot they generally play well. Secondly, the books will feed the teams with attractive point spread opportunities while the public is wagering on what happened in the past to repeat in the future.
With the Texans disappointing start to the season, and yet a solid defense and improving offense, the prospects of them having a strong second half of this campaign are likely and will early on carry with it attractive point spreads.