Tonight, the San Francisco 49ers will host the Carolina Panthers to complete the twelfth week of National Football League action. One of these teams, with a win tonight, can move into sole possession of first place in their division.
Surprise … it’s not the 49ers.
No. San Francisco needs a win tonight to keep in shouting distance of the runaway Los Angeles Rams and the second place Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West Division. The Panthers, fortunate to play out of a division without a dominant team, can move ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a win tonight in the NFC South Division. The Bucs lost their fifth game of the season last night in Los Angeles and the Panthers come into play tonight with five losses and could move one game ahead in the win column with a victory over the home team tonight.
The Panthers are one of four NFL teams to not have a bye yet this season. In the week following the Thanksgiving schedule, which has all 32 teams in action, the Panthers, 49ers, New England Patriots and New York Giants will serve the final open dates on the 2025 schedule.
When the point spread on tonight’s matchup was first released last Sunday night, a number of people noticed the line seemed to favor the Panthers. Here is a team that could move into first place and catch the 49ers in wins and losses this season with a victory tonight getting a touchdown or more on the spread. This is a Panthers team that beat the Green Bay Packers a few weeks ago and has won seven games against the number this season.
Why are the Panthers getting so many points on the line?
Is it purely public opinion from recent years where the Panthers have been horrible that the books are betting the gamblers will still be basing their wagers on?
I have found in my years of doing this work that too often gamblers will assign reasons the books do things with as much rationale behind their thinking as those that see the shadows on the wall are dancing with the music on the radio. The books don’t play small games, moving lines one way when they think the gamblers will go the other way against their best interests. The books fundamentally are looking to get the same amount of money wagered on each side to assure they simply earn their profits on the vig.
That said, there is another element to the books setting of point spreads. They set lines that are often designed to make the losing side seem attractive by the number. An opening point spread that draws gamblers to one side is often the best work the books do in order to maximize their profits. I am much more inclined to find games where we win with the books than trying to beat them.
Tonight, the Panthers can pull ahead of the Bucs just a little before their talent and history should allow it. The 49ers, on the other hand, are looking to stay in the race for a playoff berth with a loss severely crippling their chances.
That puts the Niners in a much better position based on motivation driven by need.
Now, all we have to do, given we see a San Francisco win tonight, is beat the number the books set on this game. A number, I suggest, that the books set to draw people to the underdog side of this play.
Never give the books what they want.
Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-7½) over Carolina Panthers