I completely understand the argument that the Kansas City Chiefs are not going to lose tonight and drop to a losing record on the season after 14 weeks of play.
How long has it been since Andy Reid has led his team to a losing record this late in a season?
Forever.
Reid took over a Chiefs squad that was 2 and 14 in 2012 and improved their record to a playoff earning 11-5 in his first season. He comes into the 2025 season having won the AFC West Division nine straight years. So, you can understand that it does not compute for most people that the Chiefs are going to lose tonight and drop to 6 and 7 on the season and be nearly done for the chance of cracking the playoff field.
But before you assume that Patrick Mahomes is going to will his team to a win tonight, there are a couple facts that haven’t shown up in the brilliant quarterback’s career until this season. In no other year, before 2025, did Mahomes lose his first two games of the season. His quarterback rating this season of 96.5 is among his three worst and his completion percentage of 64.6, is the lowest of his career.
Still, while the Chiefs have struggled this season and enter play tonight with as many losses as wins, their record at Arrowhead Stadium has still been stellar. Since dropping their opening home game to the Philadelphia Eagles, a week after they lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, they have won five straight games in front of their home fans and covered the point spread in four of those contests.
So, why would anyone think the Chiefs were going to lose tonight when the Houston Texans come calling?
Because, right now, the Texans are the better team. They bring to Kansas City a rock-solid defense and early season offensive woes due to poor offensive line play have been fixed. Five weeks ago, the Texans lost to the Denver Broncos when C.J. Stroud was knocked out of the game with a concussion. But rather than fold their season, DeMeco Ryan’s team responded well with backup Davis Mills winning two of his three starts including a prime-time victory over the Buffalo Bills.
Stroud came back last week, and the Texans got back into the thick of their playoff hunt with a win over the division leading Indianapolis Colts. Now Stroud is again running the offense and with the benefit of his defense the Texans are on an upward move that could have them be a very tough out in the playoffs..
The Chiefs, they are running on reputation, and when that runs smack into a team on a mission, the better team will consistently prevail.
The books opened this game with the homesteading Chiefs a 3½ point favorite, and the early money brought that line down to a field goal. In the past two days, the public money, thinking the Chiefs can’t lose a seventh game, has prompted the books to move the line up to where Kansas City is now favored by four points.
While the public says the Chiefs can’t lose, I say they can and will take the generous point spread as an insurance policy on the wager.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (+4) over Kansas City Chiefs