On most National Football League weekends there is a game that nearly everyone agrees on. A high majority of bets made at the windows in casinos and on parlay cards this one game is consistently picked one way.
I canvas wagering outlets to see where the action is. What games are the public backing in huge numbers and what games are the wise guys favoring. That most bet game is always a favorite and the books push the point spread up on the game as they look to balance some of the action on the matchup.
That popular pick seldom beats the point spread.
Is that because the public is bad at finding the team in the best position to win?
No. In fact, it is because they are highly adept at finding the teams seemingly with the least to worry about on game day.
Then why is that most bet team a consistent point spread loser?