On most National Football League weekends there is a game that nearly everyone agrees on. A high majority of bets made at the windows in casinos and on parlay cards this one game is consistently picked one way.
I canvas wagering outlets to see where the action is. What games are the public backing in huge numbers and what games are the wise guys favoring. That most bet game is always a favorite and the books push the point spread up on the game as they look to balance some of the action on the matchup.
That popular pick seldom beats the point spread.
Is that because the public is bad at finding the team in the best position to win?
No. In fact, it is because they are highly adept at finding the teams seemingly with the least to worry about on game day.
Then why is that most bet team a consistent point spread loser?
Because when a team is most confident and doesn't possess what John Madden referred to as the greatest motivator of all, a fear of your opponent, that team can come up with a flat performance. Lacking the spike in performance that a healthy respect for an opponent generates, a team with clearly the better roster can find themselves on the wrong side of the final score. And even if they should have their talent save the day and win the game, the bloated point spread is a consistent winner for the underdog.
Do we have a game today that our work over the weekend uncovered to possess the “everybody” is on them factor?
Yes.
Who?
Everyone is backing the Denver Broncos at home against the Tennessee Titans. The opening spread on this game has risen consistently since introduced with Sean Payton’s Broncos favored by 7½ points. It currently sits at the Titans getting 9 points … it may go higher before the afternoon kickoff at Mile High Stadium.
Now, a bettor is faced with the difficult challenge of putting money on a team they don’t like. We know this, because 13 of every 14 bettors that stepped to the window this weekend in Nevada and bet on this game took the Broncos and gave whatever points the books were stacking on the Titans side.
Yes, most people don’t want to bet on the Titans and won’t even in the face of knowing that they are the percentage side of this proposition. This game won’t be liked by anyone, until those that do bet on it end the day at the payout window.
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (+9) over Denver Broncos