The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans tonight to complete the Wild Card round of the 2025 National Football League postseason. The Steelers are a home underdog in a playoff game, which is the first time this has happened since Mike Tomlin’s first year as head coach in Pittsburgh.
That season, 2007, the Steelers hosted the Jacksonville Jaguars and were getting three points on the spread and while losing the game straight-up, 31-29, won the wager for their backers. In the regular season, during Tomlin's tenure as head coach in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have been home underdogs 35 times and while not only compiling a 21-14 straight-up record in those games they won the wager for their backers with a point spread mark of 22-9-4.
In other words, backing the Steelers as a home dog with Tomlin their head coach is as good of a bet as the guy at the end of the bar thinks. Sometimes, people will think something is an advantage and spout something like they always take home teams getting points. In reality, for the past ten years in the NFL home dogs have a losing mark. Since 2015, there have been 1,109 NFL teams that have been home underdogs, and they have a straight-up record of 380-723-6 … which forty years ago would have been enough wins to equal wagering success with the benefit of the point spread.
But the books pulled the rug out from under gamblers who took advantage of the long-standing home underdog edge with a slight shift in the points given home dogs. That adjustment over the past ten NFL seasons has resulted in those same 1,109 games producing a losing point spread record of 536-540-33 … add the vig to that number and you can see that home team dogs have become a profit center for the books for a long time.
Still, the Steelers are in those overall figures, and they have a healthy record as a dog at home even in current times.
Up-to-date stats also favor home team dogs in the playoffs. Since 1975, when the NFL adopted the seeding method based on regular season results, there have been 63 games where the home team got points. In those contests, the home underdogs were 37-26 straight-up and 41-20-2 against the point spread.
With that as a backdrop for tonight’s game, is there any reason to consider the Houston side of this proposition?
Yes.
Why?
Because this is the first time I can recall the Steelers hosting a playoff game where they didn’t have the superior defense. And, like home dogs do well in the postseason, so too does the superior defense.
The Houston Texans opened this campaign with three narrow losses to the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars. Their offensive line was a mess, and that opened the gate which had quarterback C.J. Stroud injured mid-season in another narrow defeat, this one to the Denver Broncos.
Still, despite the loss of their quarterback and a crushing defeat when overtaken in the fourth quarter by the Broncos, the Texans responded with backup quarterback Davis Mills. Houston won all three games he started and hasn't lost since Stroud returned to lead the Texans fortunes.
For seven straight wins the Texans did not allow more than 20 points, their offensive line greatly improved as the season progressed, and Houston arrives in Pittsburgh not as an overconfident road favorite, but with a team that has been on a mission since stumbling through the first half of their schedule.
The Steelers success has been two-fold, a quick start to their season and a missed Baltimore Ravens field goal that got them a home win last week and a playoff bid while edging the Ravens for the AFC North Division title. The missed field goal ended John Harbaugh’s 18 year run as the Ravens head coach, and leaves Tomlin, now completing his 19th campaign, as the head coach with the longest tenure in the NFL.
Stroud is appearing in his third straight postseason in his third pro campaign. His position foe tonight, Aaron Rodgers, is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021 with all 21 previous postseason starts with the Green Bay Packers. He led Green Bay to a Super Bowl title to complete the 2010 season and has an overall 11-10 won/loss postseason record.
What we have here is the Steelers at home getting points against the better defense and a team led by a quarterback entering his prime instead of one nearing the end of his career.
When we put it that way, maybe you understand why we are willing to lay the points in this one and side with the better team.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers