Two teams that have a lot in common meet tonight in Miami when the Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills in a contest set to start at 5:15 Pacific Time. Both these teams play out of the American Football Conference East Division, both opened at home against National Football Conference opponents last week, both required comebacks to win their openers, Buffalo over the Arizona Cardinals and Miami over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and neither beat the point spread.
Then they have something not in common. Since the Dolphins picked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with their first pick in the 2020 draft the Bills have won eight of the nine meetings between these two teams. And tonight, the Dolphins are a slight favorite on the point spread.
So, read no more, don’t waste any time, get off your butt and run to your local book to get down on the Bills.
Well, not so fast.
The homesteading Dolphins, because this is a night game the Dolphins are not in a position to employ their greatest physical edge, that is putting visitors in the hot Miami sun side of Hard Rock Stadium while the Dolphins bask in the shade in white uniforms. But the Dolphins have something else on their side, revenge against a Buffalo team that has dominated them for years.
Home teams also have a statistical advantage in the first month of a season when playing a Thursday night game. My assessment of this edge is based on the need for teams to work hard in getting their rhythm down early in a season, an edge that has been more apparent with the shortened preseason schedule.
Teams playing on the road on Thursday night miss a day of preparation on the field, more of a factor in September than December.
Is that enough of an edge for us to turn our back on recent history and side with Miami laying points in this game.
No.
Can that factor be overlooked enough to allow us to expect the Dolphins to snap the Bills recent winning streak in this series?
No.
Whatever team wins tonight the people that won with them will have a very good reason for their success. But, before this one starts, I’m just not sure what side is going to be celebrating on Tuesday morning.