What we have here are two teams that have had a lot of trouble beating the point spread. The visitor in this Sunday matchup has lost four straight games against the number and their home standing opponent this week has beaten the point spread only three times in 10 decisions.
On the season, the home team’s 3 and 7 point spread mark goes up against the visitor’s 4 and 6 record. The difference is that this week’s home team has won their last two outings against the number while their visitors haven’t gotten a point spread win since October 20.
Okay, there are the facts. Who do you want? The team on the road with a four-game point spread losing streak or the home team on a two-game winning run? Let me make it easier, the home team is getting double digits on the point spread.
Wait, does that make it easier or further confound this proposition?
If I put the team names in here for the home team and visitor, I suggest the pendulum of want will swing dramatically to the visitor. The matchup outlined above is the contest on Sunday in Carolina when the Panthers host the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Last week, the Chiefs incredible run of wins while getting late breaks whenever required to eke out a victory this season came to an end in Buffalo when the Bills tagged Patrick Mahomes and company with their first loss of the season, 30-21. Now the Chiefs stay on the road and meet an opponent that if the NFL schedule was a bingo card would be the free space in the middle.
The Panthers are horrible. In all likelihood they are going to have to admit someday soon that trading away their future with draft picks to acquire the first pick in the draft last season to bring Bryce Young to Carolina was a huge mistake. This season, Young got a second chance and failed early in the season, then a third when his replacement, Andy Dalton, was injured in an automobile accident.
When a team makes a huge error on draft day the repercussions can be felt for years. The trade the Panthers made with the Chicago Bears not only dropped them to the bottom of the league but is providing Chicago a number of quality athletes that will soon pay off for fans that attend their home games at Soldier Field.
For the present, the Panthers two point spread wins entering their bye week were also straight up victories, matching their season total in 2023. But, before Carolina fans can celebrate that better days are on the horizon, know this, those wins came against a pair of teams that are also struggling. The first was against the New Orleans Saints, in Derek Carr’s return from an injury game, and two weeks ago in Germany they beat the New York Giants, while they still had Daniel Jones in their lineup.
Now they meet the Chiefs, a rather severe step up in competition for Dave Canales and his struggling Panthers. And they meet Kansas City after they suffered their first loss of the season … won’t that put the Chiefs even more on alert and set Mahomes off on a scoring binge?
Not necessarily.
Losses don’t always generate spirited performances the next week. In fact, a loss followed by what appears to be a cakewalk can have a horrible result for the better team. A good team needs a challenge on the other side of a loss to get the full benefit motivationally.
The Chiefs are going to win this game is a universal opinion, and almost as dramatic of a number believe they will do it while covering a double-digit point spread.
Most, but not me.
Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+11) over Kansas City Chiefs