I founded Qoxhi Picks in 1981 and have picked all but one Super Bowl game in the succeeding 44 years. I haven’t won every Super Bowl pick but I got more grief from clients on the one game I didn’t pick than any of them I lost.
Seems no matter what the matchup, clients want a pick in the Super Bowl.
I don’t blame them, but the one time I didn’t pick the game, Super Bowl XXV between the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills, I had my reasons. If I would have picked either side that year, I would have been going against some criteria I just couldn’t justify.
Here was the situation. In 1990, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers were dominating the National Football Conference, while the Buffalo Bills appeared enroute to their first ever Super Bowl appearance. Both the eventual conference champions were dynamic, well coached by Marv Levy in Buffalo and Bill Parcells for the Giants.
Then, in early December, New York starting quarterback Phil Simms, who had led the Giants to a Super Bowl win four seasons earlier and had them poised to capture the top seed for the playoffs in 1990, was injured and lost for the remainder of the season. His replacement was Jeff Hostetler, a third-round draft choice that had served as a backup in New York for seven seasons.
In Buffalo, the Bills had an explosive offense run by future Hall of Fame Quarterback Jim Kelly. Levy had introduced the hurry up offense that season which had the Bills pressure defenses without needing to huddle between plays. Their dynamic offense shredded defenses including the Los Angeles Raiders in the 1990 AFC Championship Game, 51-3.
On the same day the Bills blew out the Raiders to advance to their first Super Bowl, the Giants met the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. The 49ers were looking to advance to their third consecutive Super Bowl, they had won the prior two over the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos.
The 49ers chances to become the first team to three-peat was lost when San Francisco runningback Roger Craig fumbled late in the fourth quarter while the home team was nursing a one-point lead and looking to run out the clock. The lost possession resulted in the game's final play having the Giants convert a field goal to end the 49ers bid for three straight Super Bowl wins and send the Giants to their second Super Bowl under Parcells, 15-13.
That was the Super Bowl matchup.
The Bills making their first appearance in the game and Parcells leading his second squad into the contest. Early in Super Bowl history, a trend emerged that a team with experience in Super Bowl competition had a big advantage over a team making their initial appearance in the final leg to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Still, to take the Giants was to go against the much more dynamic offense under the direction of Kelly and back a journeyman backup in the biggest game of his life. The Giants success that season was pinned to one of the best defensive units of all time, anchored by linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who some consider the best defensive player in history.
The better defense is a key in a Super Bowl, but the Bills overall talent had them favored by six points and a clear choice for those deciding not to back a lifetime back-up quarterback.
I didn’t want Hostetler, but I couldn’t back the Bills because I had a rule in those days to not bet on a team that scored 50 or more points in their prior game. A caution that had served me well.
So, final decision, I don’t want either side. Didn’t take either team, and got negative reviews for that decision from most of my clients. The game was close, but the Bills lost their first of four consecutive Super Bowls when kicker Scott Norwood missed a would-be winning field goal in a game the Giants won by one point, 20-19.
This year, the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to become the first team to three-peat, they have already become the first team to advance to a Super Bowl in search of a third straight victory in the Roman Numeral game.
Their competition is the same team they started this streak against, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs downed Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII, 38-35. In that game, the Eagles were a one-point favorite, this time the Chiefs are the slight favorite for their matchup scheduled in New Orleans on February 9.
If I was to lean the Eagles way, I just wish they would have limited their fourth quarter advantage over the Washington Commanders last Sunday to 14 instead of 21 points. Because, with the 21 points scored, the Eagles crossed that line into a cautionary spot of coming off a game in which they scored more than 50 points.
It’s going to be an interesting decision in the final analysis, but I guarantee you one thing, I’ll have a pick.