Al Davis often stated, “It is more difficult to maintain excellence than it is to first achieve it.”

Now, he may have been saying that in the 1970’s while I was working for him and his Oakland Raiders because the Silver and Black had already achieved greatness. They were facing the challenge of maintaining their lofty standards. And while that may be true, what he was saying was also accurate.

The reason for this in the National Football League is success is first tied to talent. Winning carries with it a lower position in the draft. Davis hated that incompetence and failure was rewarded with the top picks in the draft. So, physical capabilities were offered an enhanced position for teams with the worst record. In 1974, I asked Raiders Personnel Director Ron Wolf what team had the best talent in the NFL?

Wolf sat back in his chair, seemed to be making some calculations in his head, and then said, “The Houston Oilers.”

His answer was totally unexpected. The Oilers had completed the previous season with the worst record in football, one win and 13 losses. Since they merged with the NFL in 1970, coming over from the now defunct American Football League, their combined three-year record was 8-32-2.

Ron saw my jaw drop on his answer, and followed it up with these words, “You didn’t ask me what the best team was, your question was ‘who had the best talent,’ and that is the Oilers.” Last place finishes consistently had the Houston organization picking early in the draft, and they accumulated a lot of college blue chip talent. Players who excelled in college, had the ability to play at the professional level, but had not yet been with a coach and organization that took full advantage of their abilities.

In 1974, the Oilers talent earned as many wins as losses, seven and seven, and the following season Bum Phillips took over as head coach and ushered in a bright period of Houston “Love Ya Blue” success.

In 1975, the Oilers just missed the postseason while winning 10 of 14 regular season games and became a factor in the talented AFC Central Division which included playoff berths in 1978, 1979 and 1980. During his six years at the helm of the Oilers, Phillips compiled a 59-38 record and led one of the most entertaining teams in the entire league.

So, why do I tell you that? How does it serve us here on the eve of the 2024 season?

The point is this, Wolf saw talent before it merged into success. And while the Oilers were 21 games over .500 during Phillips tenure, that first successful season, 1975, had them compile a point spread record of 12-2. More evidence that the time to catch a runaway train is when it first leaves the station.

So, who is that team this year?

Who has been depressed for years and collecting talent without anything to show for it?

There are a couple candidates.

The Chicago Bears got the benefit of a trade the prior year with the Carolina Panthers that brought them this year’s top draft choice, one they spent on Caleb Williams, the talented quarterback out of Southern Cal. They also have stability with head coach Matt Eberflus, who is entering his third season running the club on the field.

That lands really well for the Bears this season.

But we also have to look at the other side of the coin. The Panthers were horrible last year, with the worst record in football, and the normal benefit of collecting a high draft choice had already been shipped to Chicago in the trade that gave them the first pick in last year’s draft, Bryce Young.

So far, Young is a bust, and the Panthers picked up no consolation benefit for his 2023 ineptness.

You know what that means?

They are going to be bad again this year.

Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (-4) over Carolina Panthers