I started handicapping the National Football League in the 1960’s before I was even a teenager, built charts and trends with numbers during the 1970s while also working in professional sports with the Oakland Raiders and opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981.
During the development of my business, I was drawn to NFL teams getting points at home like a moth to a light on a hot summer night. For good reason. From 1970 to 1980 there were 821 games that included a team at home getting points on the spread. In those games, the home underdog won straight-up 34% of the time and got the money with the line 56% of the time. If all wagers are equal, bettors would need to win more than 52.38% of their bets to show a profit with the standard 10% vig.
I know a lot of numbers. But stay with me because this all ends with us making money tonight when the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints.
During the most recent ten seasons, 2014 to the present, home team underdogs have maintained their established 34% win margin straight up in 1,061 games. But in those same contests their point spread record has dropped 6% to nearly 50% … a record against the spread since 2014 of 511-516-34.
Same percentage of straight up winners, but the books have pulled the rug out from the gamblers by shifting lines that took away the point spread advantage for home underdogs. This year, home underdogs are 25-69 straight up, 27% winners, and a losing 39-51-4 versus the line, a money burning 43%.
I have a bug killer in my back yard, and my grandchildren seem to like it when a bug is eliminated with the sound of a quick electrical jolt. But, if I’m still that moth in the evening drawn to home underdogs in the NFL, that sound is me getting zapped.
Now, for the other side of the coin.
NFL teams favored at home by more than 14 points. From 1970 to 1980 there were 119 such games and the home teams won 85% of the time straight up, 98-17-4, with a point spread record of 60-56-3. Over the past ten seasons, since 2014, there have been 64 games with a home team favored by two touchdowns or more, and their record is 60-4 straight-up, 94% winners, and 35-28-1 against the point spread, 56% winners.
In other words, taking NFL teams giving more than two touchdowns is a better wagering proposition than backing a home team underdog.
Go figure.
Now for the kicker, this year there have been three teams favored by 14 or more at home and in the first two such games the huge home favorite won the contest but failed to cover the point spread. Two weeks ago, the Philadelphia Eagles were favored by 14 points and beat the Carolina Panthers by only six points, 22-16. Yesterday, the Buffalo Bills gave 14 points for their home contest against the New England Patriots and had to overcome a 14-0 deficit on their way to a three-point victory, 24-21.
Tonight, the Packers are 14-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints.
Take the points?
No.
Why?
Because the Eagles point spread loss was registered the week after they beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road and before they met the Pittsburgh Steelers. A clear sandwich game. Yesterday, the Bills narrow win over the Patriots followed two titanic battles against the Los Angeles Rams, a 44-42 road loss, and a road win over the team that came into the week with the best record in the National Football Conference, the Detroit Lions. Yesterday was a clear spot where the Bills would have trouble getting motivated to play a Patriots squad they already beat this year, 34-15, and with confidence that their offense would continue to put up points at will.
Now for the Packers.
They have two NFC North Division games left on their schedule after tonight, at Minnesota against the Vikings and a season closer versus the Chicago Bears at home. But they need this game to stay ahead of the Washington Commanders for the sixth postseason seed and with the possibility of catching the Vikings with two additional wins to close out their season coupled with a pair of Minnesota losses. The Vikings meet the Packers next week and end their season at Detroit.
So, this is not a game the Packers will be looking past. This is a game they need and, in all likelihood, will win by more than the two touchdown point spread.
Qoxhi Picks: Green Bay Packers (-14) over New Orleans Saints