The two best teams in the National Football League who are not leading their division races meet tonight in Los Angeles when the Baltimore Ravens square off against the Chargers. The Ravens are chasing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North Division race and got a break to begin this week when Mike Tomlin’s team was upset in Cleveland last Thursday.
The Chargers are chasing the Kansas City Chiefs, who are horrible against the point spread, 4 and 7, but near perfect straight-up, 10-1. The Chargers lost their first meeting of the season to Andy Reid’s squad at SoFi Stadium and meet them again in two weeks at Arrowhead Stadium.
Currently two back in the loss column, a defeat tonight would be crippling to the Chargers hopes of catching Patrick Mahomes and company.
The Ravens are a little closer to the Steelers, but like the Chargers, also have a head-to-head loss against the team they are chasing in their division.
Okay, both the Ravens and Chargers need wins tonight, and both are good enough to get it. The Ravens have an offense that can beat you on the ground or through the air, and a defense that stops opponents rushing attacks as well as any stop unit in the league. The Ravens do have one liability on defense, their pass coverage ranks among the worst in football.
Both those defensive stats could be slanted because of the Ravens high scoring offense. Once an NFL team is multiple points behind, they are likely to abandon their running game and rely on passes. So, with that in mind, maybe the Ravens stop unit is not as good as their rushing stat indicates or as bad as the passing numbers would suggest.
We know this, when push comes to shove the Ravens are good enough to beat any team at any site. That is why they are favored tonight in Los Angeles.
But, before we get swayed to Lamar Jackson and company, know this, the Chargers have allowed the fewest points in the league this year and last we checked a solid defense is a calling card for point spread wins when getting points on the spread. Also, if the Ravens do have some holes in their pass defense, Justin Herbert is a good candidate to exploit them.
At a recent presentation I was making to a group on handicapping the NFL one of the attendees asked, “What motivational factors do you use?”
My answer was instinctive, “The first thing I look for is a team that lost last week. A team, particularly a good team, is always more focused when challenged to avenge a defeat.”
Using that as a guide, the Chargers are riding a four-game winning streak while the Ravens are coming off that stinging loss in Pittsburgh.
Huge edge to the visitors tonight by that factor.
But is it enough to cover a three-point road favorite role?
I’m betting it is.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-3) over Los Angeles Chargers