Two division opponents are meeting this Sunday and one of the teams is riding a five-game point spread winning streak and is 6 and 1 against the point spread this season. Their opponent has not won more games than they lost against the spread this season with a mark of 3-3-1 against the line.
Okay, big deal. What’s the point?
Well, what if I told you that the team on the winning streak and the near perfect point spread record is getting points this week? Would you then think the only play in this game is to take the team with the better money mark getting points?
Before you decide that, let me fill in who these teams are with their names.
I'm betting that it would surprise most football followers to learn that the team with the best record against the point spread this year is the Indianapolis Colts. Their only point spread loss this season was a hard-fought narrow defeat at Lambeau Field in second week action, 16-10. In their six other games, four of which they were underdogs, the Colts have won money for their backers.
This week, the Colts are in Houston to meet a Texans team that they could catch in the AFC South Division standings with a win. Despite the balance in favor of the Colts on the point spread marks, the Texans have won one more game straight-up this season with a 5 and 2 record.
The Texans, bounced into the 2024 season off their incredible rise in the standings last year, going from a last place finish in 2022 to the playoffs behind a first-year head coach and rookie quarterback. The meteoric rise engineered by DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud is a pattern that most often leads to a poor showing, particularly against the point spread, in the initial season after the quick rise.
The Texans followed suit on this pattern through more than the first month of the 2024 season. While winning three of their first four games straight-up, they failed to pick up a point spread win. Then, in fifth week action, the Texans hosted the Buffalo Bills and had the line in that game screwed down to a one-point home favorite role. They picked up their first point spread win of the season against Buffalo in a 23-20 victory.
The win came with a heavy price, in the victory over Josh Allen and company, the Texans lost league leading receiver Nico Collins to a hamstring injury. He is currently on injured reserve and not scheduled to return to action until November 10 when Houston hosts the talented Detroit Lions.
Stroud’s prolific passing game has been grounded without Collins in the lineup, and last week the second-year quarterback was limited to 86 passing yards while completing only 10 of 21 attempts in the loss to Green Bay. This week, that passing attack could be further inhibited with Robert Woods still sidelined. The talented receiver had off-season surgery and has seen limited action this season, catching only three passes in a pair of games. He missed last week’s loss and is not available this Sunday.
So, what do we have here?
A Houston team in a year in which their point spread record should be depressed based on last season's surprise playoff run and an Indianapolis squad coming into action with the best point spread record in football getting points while needing a win to catch the Texans in their division standings.
This is easy. Right?
Easy yes, but perhaps not the way you might imagine.
A closer examination of the Colts success this year reveals that they have benefited from opponents the past two weeks that offer two free spaces on the NFL schedule, games against the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins. On opening day this season, the Texans won in Indianapolis, 29-27, a game in which the Colts were getting a field goal on the point spread.
Now the Colts are getting a field goal on the point spread on the road and Houston is not sitting pretty thinking they are among the best in football. Instead, Houston is concerned where they are going to generate offense without a couple primary weapons and knowing that a loss here drops them into a tie with the surprising Colts. These factors put the Texans on full alert.
The problem with teams playing the year after a huge upward shift in fortunes is that the expectations versus actual talent and winning tradition are out of whack. This week, that could-be problem area is not in play for the Texans. They do not come into this game overconfident, but rather focused on where they are going to generate offense to hold their first place standing.
In other words, we’ve got the better team motivated, and their opponent overrated.
Yep. Easy.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (-5) over Indianapolis Colts