“And the kick is up and …,” the announcer said on Sunday night in a tense battle between the AFC West Division leading Kansas City Chiefs and their closest division pursuer, the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a one-point game when the kicker sent the ball towards the uprights.
Now, if that had been a Chargers kicker I suggest that if the ball would have hit the upright it would have fallen away no good. But this is the Chiefs kicker, looking to advance Kansas City from a one-point deficit to another close win.
The ball did hit the upright … and, as expected for the Chiefs fortunes, glanced to the right and between the goal posts to give Kansas City another win, this time, 19-17.
The Chiefs team is like a guy who forgot his umbrella on a rainy day and avoided the rain drops running between his car and office.
The Chiefs have the best record in football, 12-1, and one of the worst records against the point spread, 4 and 9. They have had four games end when the last play was a field goal attempt. When the Chiefs needed that kick to win, they got it every time. When they needed the last play of the game field goal to be no good, the Denver Broncos obliged five weeks ago.
No team in NFL history has ever compiled a record as good as the Chiefs, thirteen wins in fourteen games, with as little of a points-for and points-against margin. On the season, Kansas City has outscored their opponents by a combined 56 points. Ten teams this year have a better point differential margin, and only the Detroit Lions match the Chiefs straight-up winning percentage. Even the Chiefs two closest competitors in the AFC West, the Chargers and Broncos, have a wider gap on season points-for and points-against. The Broncos have outscored their opponents this season by 71 points, the Chargers 70.
Still, in the column that counts, the Chiefs have won four more and lost four less games than the two runner-ups in the AFC West.
Is this with mirrors? Pure luck? By design?
Well, I suggest, a combination of all those.
First, by design the Chiefs have the winningest quarterback by so many standards in the history of the game with Patrick Mahomes. This is a field general who has a winning record in games his team trailed by ten points. He has what it takes to get a win seemingly no matter what the odds. Just ask the Buffalo Bills, who lost a playoff game in Kansas City a few years ago when they took the lead with 17 seconds left on the clock and Mahomes engineered a tying field goal drive with that time and a winning touchdown in overtime.
Secondly, the Chiefs have a defense this year that is able to blunt opponents efforts to salt away wins. They get the ball back into Mahomes’ capable hands to work his late game magic.
And yes, they are luckier than the monkeys that recently escaped through a gate left open at the zoo.
It all adds up to a clinching division win last Sunday night, and now they will look to maintain their hold on the top seed come playoff time. Last week, with the Chiefs win and the Buffalo Bills loss in Los Angeles earlier in the day, Kansas City’s prospects for hosting their playoff games was enhanced. The Chiefs primary competition for that distinction is Josh Allen and his Bills. They pinned the Chiefs with their only loss of the season, so if Kansas City and Buffalo end the season with the same won/loss record, the home field advantage would go to the Bills based on that head-to-head victory.
After last week's results, the Bills now have three losses, the Chiefs still that single setback in Buffalo.
In other words, the Chiefs not only clinched their division with the deflected field goal that got through the uprights for three points, but they added a cushion for home field advantage.
That is a lot to accomplish on a single kick and on our charts indicates a stretch of luck that has expanded as far as it can go without a snapback.
What better team to produce that snapback than a Cleveland Browns squad that is buried in the cellar in their division race but capable of a big performance against a quality opponent. The Browns have won only three games this season, but two of those victories came against the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. They also stayed within the point spread in a narrow loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Sure, the Chiefs might eke out another close win this Sunday, but cover a four-point line following last week’s dramatic victory?
Not likely.
Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (+4) over Kansas City Chiefs