In a Sunday night game with significant playoff implications the Seattle Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers at Lumen Field. The Seahawks are riding a four-game winning streak since their open date on November 10, and that surge has lifted them to the top of the pack in the bunched NFC West Division race. Three of the Seahawks recent wins have come against division opponents with victories over the San Francisco 49ers and a pair of triumphs over the Arizona Cardinals.
The team with the best chance of catching the Seahawks in the division race is the Los Angeles Rams, winners of seven of nine games since their bye in mid-October. If the Packers were to beat Seattle tonight, the Rams and Seahawks would be tied atop the division with 8 and 6 records.
The visiting Packers saw their best chance at catching the leader in their NFC North Division race, the Detroit Lions, fall by the wayside in a narrow defeat last week at Ford Field. The loss to the Lions dropped the Packers three games behind the Lions and Detroit has won both head-to-head meetings against Jordan Love and company.
The Packers best chance at cracking the National Football Conference playoff field is now left through a Wild Card door. They have a 9-4 won loss record which currently has them slotted in the sixth of seven playoff slots. The Washington Commanders caught the Packers in win totals with their victory earlier today against the New Orleans Saints, but they have five losses.
While the NFC West has a couple teams with eight wins starting action today, the Rams won their eighth game with their Thursday night victory over the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, and the Seahawks are the other. It seems unlikely that the NFC West would produce a Wild Card team but that remains a mathematical possibility for both the Rams and Seahawks. Either Los Angeles or Seattle are the likely division champs.
So, as is the case in the NFL, this is the time of the year when teams in contention are scoreboard watching to see if their chances at a playoff berth are enhanced or diminished by games they have no control over.
Tonight, the Packers are a slight favorite, and over the course of the season have appeared the more talented team between these two squads. The Seahawks have been good enough to string together four wins and quality victories over the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. But they have lost games they appeared in a solid position to win, including an early season loss to the New York Giants in Seattle.
If I’m sitting at the bar and making a bet on this game, I want the Packers.
But I’m not in a bar, I’m in my office with more stats and tendencies than most other people in the business have access to. And in this one, there are edges indicating advantages for both sides, which leaves me with none.