Joe Burrow’s return to action last Sunday after missing the second half of the 2023 season with an injury did not go well for him and his fellow Cincinnati Bengals teammates. Favored at home by more than a touchdown, the Bengals got upset at Paycor Stadium by the New England Patriots and their new head coach, Jerod Mayo.

It doesn’t appear to get any easier for Cincinnati this week when they meet the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs opening game last weekend came down to the difference between a toe being in or out of bounds on the game's final play. Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Lamar Jackson connected with tightend Isaiah Likely for an apparent touchdown and Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh had already called for a two-point conversion that would have either won or lost the game by one point for either team.

But the replay showed Likely’s toe was just on the white and out of bounds, and in the words of Monte Stickles, “Dempsey would have been in.”

Likely was not, and the Chiefs escaped with the victory by the slimmest of margins. Now they look to open the season with back-to-back home triumphs when the Bengals come calling on Sunday afternoon.

While the defending champs are favored by six points and looking to take control of not only the AFC West Division but the American Football Conference early standings for home playoff field advantages, the Bengals are facing a near do or die situation.

Since 1990, 270 teams have opened the season with back-to-back losses, and only 31 of those squads went on to earn a playoff spot that year. For you math majors, that computes to 89% of the winless teams missing the playoffs, and for all you practical types, that makes avoiding an 0 and 2 start imperative for any squad hoping to compete into the second week of January.

The Bengals are a team expecting to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year when Burrow spent a bulk of the campaign on the shelf. If they don’t upset the Chiefs on Sunday, their chances are greatly reduced from a statistical perspective.

I love good teams that need a win coming off an upset loss.

Now, expecting a victory for the visitor in Kansas City is always a great challenge, but only two quarterbacks in NFL history have beaten Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead in the postseason. The first was Tom Brady, and the second was Burrow three years ago when the Bengals upset Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City is looking to accomplish something this season that no team has done in NFL history, win a third straight Super Bowl. They would still be favorites to get that done win or lose on Sunday, but the Bengals chances of even cracking the AFC playoff field is on the line this week.

Motivation, history and a generous point spread is a very good reason to skip expecting a second straight home win for the Champs.

Qoxhi Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (+6) over Kansas City Chiefs