In the National Football League, all sports for that matter, there are circumstances that lend well to a team doing better than they had the previous season, and factors that are almost certain to depress their upcoming results.

An NFL team that has a breakthrough season and earns a playoff berth or Super Bowl win after years of last place finishes, is almost certain to have a difficult time achieving success the following season. There is a reason for this that bends mostly with motivational factors. A team that has sudden success had the motivation to overcome tough prior years. When a team first achieves that new found level of accomplishment, they face what Al Davis contended was the toughest of all challenges.

The owner and general manager of the Raiders often said, “Maintaining greatness is more difficult than first achieving it.”

Consider this, two of the most storied teams in NFL history, the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots, who were directed by quarterbacks always in the conversation for best ever, Joe Montana and Tom Brady, both missed the playoffs the year after their initial Super Bowl triumphs.

The 49ers first tasted success under Bill Walsh in 1981 with a victory in Super Bowl XVI over the Cincinnati Bengals. The following year, 1982, the league had an expanded playoff format based on an early season strike that reduced the regular season to nine games. Still, the 49ers missed that playoff field while compiling a losing won/loss record.

The Patriots surprised the football world twenty years later, 2001, with upset wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and St. Louis Rams in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl XXXVI. The next year was the only season a healthy Brady failed to lead New England to a first place AFC East Division title in his Hall of Fame career. And for you nerds, I know Brady isn’t yet retired for five years to make him eligible for the Hall, but trust me, he is headed there on his first ballot opportunity.