In the National Football League, all sports for that matter, there are circumstances that lend well to a team doing better than they had the previous season, and factors that are almost certain to depress their upcoming results.
An NFL team that has a breakthrough season and earns a playoff berth or Super Bowl win after years of last place finishes, is almost certain to have a difficult time achieving success the following season. There is a reason for this that bends mostly with motivational factors. A team that has sudden success had the motivation to overcome tough prior years. When a team first achieves that new found level of accomplishment, they face what Al Davis contended was the toughest of all challenges.
The owner and general manager of the Raiders often said, “Maintaining greatness is more difficult than first achieving it.”
Consider this, two of the most storied teams in NFL history, the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots, who were directed by quarterbacks always in the conversation for best ever, Joe Montana and Tom Brady, both missed the playoffs the year after their initial Super Bowl triumphs.
The 49ers first tasted success under Bill Walsh in 1981 with a victory in Super Bowl XVI over the Cincinnati Bengals. The following year, 1982, the league had an expanded playoff format based on an early season strike that reduced the regular season to nine games. Still, the 49ers missed that playoff field while compiling a losing won/loss record.
The Patriots surprised the football world twenty years later, 2001, with upset wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and St. Louis Rams in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl XXXVI. The next year was the only season a healthy Brady failed to lead New England to a first place AFC East Division title in his Hall of Fame career. And for you nerds, I know Brady isn’t yet retired for five years to make him eligible for the Hall, but trust me, he is headed there on his first ballot opportunity.
While success will often lead to a dip the following year for teams not used to winning, failure for a talented team can also lead to a bounce back season. This year, that points to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The only team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium in the playoffs other than Brady and his Patriots, Cincinnati downed them in the AFC Championship Game three years ago, the Bengals missed the playoffs last year. They had a season in which they incurred more injuries than a season of M*A*S*H did on their television series. The most notable was the midseason loss of Quarterback Joe Burrow.
With him, the Bengals were tied with the Baltimore Ravens in a Monday Night Football matchup that with a road win would have vaulted them to first place in the talented AFC Central Division. Then Burrow was injured, not to return for the rest of the season, and the Bengals struggled the rest of the way and finished the season out of the playoff field.
Now what?
My money says the Bengals will return to excellence this season not only motivated by last year’s disappointment, but by competing in what appears to be by our numbers, the toughest division in football.
The Baltimore Ravens are favored to repeat as AFC Central Division champions, the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs last year without their starting quarterback, Deshawn Watson, who is back this year, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for their 18th consecutive winning season under Head Coach Mike Tomlin.
Off a losing year and with stiff division competition, one can look for the Bengals to be on alert and talented enough to be very special this season. Which, by the way, is not good news for the talent depleted Patriots who visit Paycor Stadium on opening day.