Kansas City Chiefs. Period.

San Francisco 49ers. Period.

Baltimore Ravens. Period.

Cincinnati Bengals. Period

Detroit Lions. Period.

Jacksonville Jaguars. Period.

Buffalo Bills. Period.

Yep, I could write a story about any of those seven teams winning Super Bowl LIX and appear to have the inside track on who and why. Period. No need for further conversation. But, in fact, there is a lot of need for further conversation that includes a number of the 25 other National Football League teams not listed among the seven “favorites” posted above.

Last season, the Houston Texans were under the direction of a first-year head coach, DeMeco Ryans, and a rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud. After they lost their first two regular season games in September, to the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts, no one was expecting what happened over the next few months to the team that finished with the worst record in the league in 2022.

Behind Stroud and their rookie coach, the Texans were one of the most entertaining teams of the 2023 campaign, earned a playoff berth, and beat the Cleveland Browns in their opening postseason game.

Does that mean the Texans should be listed among the top seven with a period after their name this season?

No.

History shows us that teams that make a meteoric rise in the standings, from last place to the playoffs, often have trouble in their first defense of that success. Their rise to the postseason was built on the motivational boost of looking to overcome recent failure. Following their initial success, their campaign has expectations that often rise above actual talent.

That is not to say the Texans aren’t a well-coached talented team with a bright future, but in all likelihood their 2024 season will be a series of surprise disappointments in contrast to last season’s surprise successes. Their record against the point spread is a target for losing results. When they open the season next week they are favored on the road against division opponent Indianapolis, a perfect spot for a home underdog triumph.

While the Texans are headed into a projected down year based on last year’s success, the Jacksonville Jaguars endured their down season in 2023 following their breakout campaign the previous year. Like the Texans last season, the Jaguars went from having the worst record in football in 2020 and 2021 to the playoffs and, also like Houston, an opening postseason victory in 2022.

Now, after missing the playoffs following that success, the Jaguars are perfectly poised to benefit once again from solid coaching and a talented roster while not weighted down with expectations that dull motivation.

The Jaguars open the regular season against the Miami Dolphins, a team that opened the 2023 season with a burst that faded to black before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in an opening playoff game.

It just may be that the better team is getting points on the spread in this matchup, the Dolphins are favored by 3½ in their Hard Rock Stadium opener. The underdog role is a great insurance policy on a wager with the team we expect will win the game straight-up.

Qoxhi Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3½) over Miami Dolphins