It can be argued that Caleb Williams became the Chicago Bears starting quarterback last December when the Carolina Panthers lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars to clinch the first pick in the 2024 National Football League draft.

What? How does that work?

Well, even though the Panthers had the worst record in football last season, and that fact was clinched with their shutout loss to the Jaguars on New Year’s Eve, they didn’t have the first pick in the draft. They had sent that pick, and others, to the Chicago Bears for the right to select Bryce Young with the first pick in the 2023 draft.

That hasn’t worked out so well, at least not yet. Young was a bust in his rookie season while the second player taken in last year’s draft, C.J. Stroud, had a fantastic rookie season and led the Houston Texans to the playoffs.

This year, with the first pick, the Bears chose Caleb Williams out of Southern Cal and named him their starting quarterback before ESPN was done running his stats on draft day. To remove any doubt, the Bears shipped their starting quarterback, Justin Fields, a first-round draft choice in 2021, to the Pittsburgh Steelers at a bargain basement price.

See, the Bears knew who they wanted long before they drafted Williams, and named him their starter before he even entered Chicago’s locker room.

Good choice?

The next Patrick Mahomes?

Well, not so fast Maxwell. The Bears success in picking and developing quarterbacks is akin to the success a screen door has to shield wind. Sid Luckman was a pretty good Chicago quarterback, but he played in the 1940’s. Jim McMahon was great in 1985 when he led the Bears to a Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots. But his career was short, and his effectiveness shorter still.

The list of Chicago starting quarterbacks reads like a who’s who of nots. Vince Evans, Steve Walsh, Erik Kramer, Cade McNown, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton and Mitch Trubisky to name just a handful of their woeful list of signal callers.

Now they hope Williams is the next Mahomes?

Do they know Mahomes spent all but the last game of his rookie season on the bench while Alex Smith guided the Chiefs offense? And when Mahomes was offered advertising deals during that rookie season he turned them all down because he didn’t want to take the focus off the Chiefs starter.

Now that’s character. That’s the stuff an organization can be proud to hoist as their team leader.

Williams?

I’m not wishing bad for the kid, and he certainly is athletically gifted. But to think Williams is ready to step in and lead the Bears to a winning season is a stretch.

Right now, his personal expectations far, far exceed his true potential for his rookie season. And few things are more debilitating for a rookie quarterback than lofty hopes based on thin air.

Consider this, rookie quarterbacks do not fare well when thrown into the mix as an opening day starter. Both Young and the eventual phenom Stroud, lost when they opened for their teams last September … and they were both underdogs in that role.

Fifteen times a rookie quarterback has been favored on opening day, and fourteen of those favorites lost against the point spread.

Williams is favored tomorrow and will be playing in front of his hometown fans who are expecting greatness out of the box. When in fact, history shows favored rookie signal callers are duds to start.

Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (+4) over Chicago Bears