The best thing is the right teams usually win.
The identifiable winners going in actually win at a pace around 86%, yet a big chunk off that success rate is lost on the point spread. Identifying winning teams is a good place to start, but finding the best wager based on current lines is a much more profitable discipline to master.
Games in which a particular team couldn’t possibly lose to their overmatched opponent is both a spot for a likely winner and a spot where motivational advantages could well outgun the pure talent discrepancy.
On any given day, usually Sunday, there is a game that ‘everyone’ agrees on for one side. That side loses nearly half the time straight-up and more than 70% of the time against the point spread.
On opening day this year, which team is agreed on by most to be headed for an easy win?
There are three games on the opening day schedule that appear lopsided in favor of the home team. And, statistically, good teams usually take advantage of their home field advantage on opening day. It is worth noting that only two of the 58 Super Bowl winners lost on opening day at home, that would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2002 and the Kansas City Chiefs last year. The Bucs ended 2002 with a romp over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII after losing to the New Orleans Saints on their home field to start that season. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were upset by the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead to kickoff the 2023 season, and ended the year with an overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
This year, a pair of teams with high expectations and low Super Bowl odds open in games that they appear destined to win easily. The Buffalo Bills host the Arizona Cardinals on September 8 while the Cincinnati Bengals entertain the New England Patriots. While it looks like easy wins for the Bills and Bengals, they may also expect a comfortable triumph and could already be looking ahead to a more challenging second week matchup.
In second week action, the Bills play on Thursday night in Miami against their AFC East Division rival Dolphins. A prime time road game may steal some of the attention the Bills would be well served to focus on their opener against the Cardinals. The Bengals also have a more attractive second week matchup after their opener against the Patriots, they travel to Kansas City to meet the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.
Still, the success of the best teams at home on opening day through caution in betting against either the Bills or Bengals … but certainly preclude the obvious play of laying points with them in these spots. Which takes us to the third team that has what appears to be a cakewalk in their season opening game; the New Orleans Saints open their 2024 campaign at Caesars Superdome against the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers were the worst team in football last year, by any measure, and they not only had a horrible season but didn’t even get the advantage of a high draft pick after having the worst record in football. They had already traded their 2024 first round draft selection to the Chicago Bears in 2023 for the first pick in the draft that season. The Panthers also shipped wide receiver D.J. Moore and two additional draft picks, second round selections in 2023 and 2025, to Chicago to secure Bryce Young with the first overall selection. That didn’t work out well either. Young had a miserable rookie season while the second player picked in the 2023 draft, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, had a season considered by many the best ever for a rookie signal caller and led the Houston Texans to the 2023 playoffs.
Yeah, it was a bad year for the Panthers both in the front office and on the field. Now they open the 2024 season with expectations in the tank. And they open the season on the road against a Saints team that narrowly missed a playoff spot last season.
Easy for the Saints … right?
Might New Orleans already be distracted by the more compelling second week contest they will have when they meet the Cowboys in Dallas?
The formula that identifies an “easy” win for one team with a more enticing matchup on their schedule the next week, is clearly in play for the Panthers visit to New Orleans. Sometimes, the more difficult task is actually wagering on a game that meets wanted criteria simply because it looks like an uphill battle.
But, that is exactly why motivation works like it does … if it hurts before the game to make the wager, there is a real good chance it’s going to feel a lot better when collecting on the wager after the game.
Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+5) over New Orleans Saints