In predicting season win totals I rely more on season-to-season motivational factors than simple talent. It is not enough to say that the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens are perhaps the best three teams in the National Football League headed into the 2024 season and therefore bet on them to go over their win totals.

It is also not enough to identify the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots or New York Giants as three of the worst teams in the league this year and therefore pick them to go under their win totals.

Nope. What I’m looking for is a team that based on recent results is overrated or underrated headed into the season. At the top of the overrated list this year is the Houston Texans. It is not that I’m not impressed by their young quarterback or head coach, both C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans are entering their second years in the NFL as a quarterback and head coach, and their initial seasons last year were spectacular by any measure.

The Texans went from the bottom of the standings to the playoffs, even opened their postseason with a victory over the Cleveland Browns. But, while that success was built on the premise of erasing years of disappointments, now they must meet the more difficult challenge of meeting high expectations.

I keep a chart in Qoxhi offices that rates all team expectations versus their real talent and history of success or failure. On that chart, this year, the Texans are way out of whack. Expectations are way too high for a team that has only one winning season in recent years and that was their most recent campaign. The Texans are on a path that should lead them to be a real contender for a Super Bowl triumph in years to come, but not this season.

This year, the Texans struggle to meet expectations and reload their talent for next season with a more advantageous balance between talent and expectations.

With exactly the same set up, but a year later in their development, is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here is a team that finished back-to-back years with the worst record in football and during that process collected blue chip talent through the draft for both sides of the ball including their franchise quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.

After cracking the playoff field in 2022 and, like the Texans last season, winning their opening postseason contest, the Jaguars struggled in 2023 and missed the postseason.

What happened to the Jaguars last year?

Expectations far exceeded their actual talent and winning tradition.

What happens now?

Their expectations are more in line with their actual talent and the motivation following a disappointing campaign puts Doug Peterson’s squad in a perfect position to excel, perhaps all the way to Super Bowl LIX.

There you have our theory on picking a team to go over or under their season win total and below is our complete list for the 2024 season.

Qoxhi Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars over 8½ wins

Houston Texans under 9½ wins

Green Bay Packers over 10 wins

Philadelphia Eagles under 11 wins

Seattle Seahawks under 8 wins

Denver Broncos over 6 wins

Atlanta Falcons over 9½ wins