The Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions close out the first Sunday of National Football League action tonight in a game scheduled to start at 5:20 p.m. Pacific Time. Three years ago, these two National Football Conference squads made a trade that may lead to both of them winning a Super Bowl.

The Rams completed the 2018 season with a loss in Super Bowl LIII to the New England Patriots. In that game, Rams quarterback Jared Goff had a terrible showing and the disappointing performance led to the lowest scoring game in Super Bowl history, 13-3.

It was then that the Rams decided they had a team primed for a Super Bowl win, but the perceived liability at quarterback derailed their chances. So, three years ago they shipped Goff and a bevy of draft choices to the Detroit Lions in exchange for quarterback Matthew Stafford.

That did the trick for the Rams, as in his first season on the west coast Stafford led the Rams to their first Super Bowl win while playing out of Los Angeles.

But, before you crown the Rams the winner of the huge trade in 2021, know this, the Lions took advantage of the added draft picks from the Rams. particularly because Los Angeles had a down year in the wake of their Super Bowl victory while Stafford was sidelined with an injury. The Lions have cashed those draft picks over the past three years to add blue-chip talent on both sides of the ball.

And Detroit’s quarterback, Goff, looks more polished and better equipped to lead the Lions to their first ever Super Bowl. Last year, he had the Lions on the doorstep of a Super Bowl berth in a hard-fought game in San Francisco, and he opened the Lions playoff run with a victory over Stafford and his Rams.

Now Los Angeles is back again, and in the wake of the retirement of future hall of fame inductee Aaron Donald, the Rams strength up front is likely to drop off a bit. And while the Rams have cashed their success in the trade with Detroit, the Lions are just at the beginning of benefiting from the trade.

So, what does that leave us with tonight when these two talented franchises kick off the Sunday Night Football schedule?

I like the homesteading Lions. I think their head coach, Dan Campbell, is on the verge of leading the Detroit franchise to their first ever Super Bowl. He is bold enough to take chances that are not by the book, and his team responds to his confidence with a full out effort.

It is a great combination, and don’t you know Goff and company are focused on beating the Rams and their former quarterback one more time.

But, before we lay more than a field goal on the point spread with a Los Angeles opponent it is worth noting that they too are a strong franchise. And there is historical evidence across all sports that when a dominant star retires, like Donald, there can be a surge in the performance of players looking to compensate for that loss.

From a wagering standpoint, giving 4½ or 5 points in this contest is simply too high risk. We’ll know a lot more about the direction of both these teams after tonight’s meeting, but wagering on that outcome before the game is played offers conflicting edges and no real advantage.