I start each National Football League season with some assumptions based on year-to-year trends, shifts in personnel and direction of organizations from top to bottom. If those assumptions prove to be true, we roll from start to finish. If our assumptions are off, we can wobble out of the gate like a racehorse losing its footing.
One assumption I made this year based on data that has been substantiated over 60 years is that a team that goes from the bottom to the top from one season to the next is in for a dip in their first year after success. I cite two clear examples, that being the 1982 San Francisco 49ers and 2002 New England Patriots.
Those two franchises were cellar dwellers in recent years then vaulted to Super Bowl wins behind a pair of young quarterbacks that went on to Hall of Fame careers, Joe Montana and Tom Brady. But, following their success to complete the 1981 and 2001 seasons, both the 49ers and Patriots missed the playoffs the following years.
Last season, the Houston Texans went from the bottom of the standings to a surprise playoff berth and opening round victory in the Wild Card round. Led by first year head coach DeMeco Ryans and the sensational play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans were one of the most exciting stories of the 2023 season.
By my charts, that means the Texans are in for a disappointing 2024 campaign before their expectations and actual talent are more in balance. Few things are more debilitating to a team’s success than expectations that far exceed actual winning tradition.
With that as my guide, making the Indianapolis Colts a play last week while underdogs at Lucas Oil Stadium was easy. Not only did I have the year-to-year factor, I had a home underdog division opponent with an apparent upside against what was expected to be a down year for the visitor.
Turns out, the visitor, Houston, added to last year’s success with a season opening road win over the Colts. Fortunately, for us, the three-point spread was decisive in having the Colts win the wager in the 29-27 straight-up loss. But not winning that game straight up when the Texans were in a bad spot prompts me to pause on my assumption that this is a down year for Stroud and company.
Maybe, just maybe, this team is poised to build on last year’s success with another banner season in 2024. They certainly have the talent, while my major cause for concern was their motivation … yet the ability of winning in a bad spot in their opener has me second guessing the trajectory for the Houston franchise.
This week, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and his Chicago Bears visit Houston, and they are coming off a win over Tennessee that was accomplished in the rarest of ways. It had been 63 years since an NFL team that allowed multiple touchdowns and didn’t score one on offense won a game. The Bears erased a 17-3 halftime deficit with a second half that included a block punt for a touchdown, two field goals and an interception returned for a touchdown and ensuing two-point conversion to earn a 24-17 victory over the Titans.
Now they go to Houston.
Both these teams won in bad spots last week, but the Texans won on the strength of their offense while the Bears eked out their victory based on inept play by their opponent. In Week Two, we can expect the Texans to be much more efficient than the Titans were last week in Soldier Field, and the Bears to be no better. Which means this, I’ll override the season-to-season concern for the Texans and expect a one-sided triumph for the home team in Houston on Sunday night.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (-6) over Chicago Bears