The National Football League plays a rare Friday contest today when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders in a game set to kickoff at noon Pacific Time. By the standard of teams with realistic Super Bowl aspirations these two teams couldn’t be more different.
The Chiefs are looking to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Raiders will not be playing this season after the first week of January. The Chiefs have the best record in football, along with the Detroit Lions, suffering only one loss on the season. The Raiders are one of three teams with the worst won/loss record in 2024, with two wins in 11 decisions.
The only place the Raiders and Chiefs converge is with equal records against the point spread. Both Kansas City and Las Vegas have tallied money burning records against the number of four wins and seven losses. Today, in this noon encounter at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs are 13-point favorites.
Wait a minute. The Chiefs have the best straight-up record in football and only four teams have a worst point spread record? Yep. The New England Patriots, New York Jets and New York Giants have three point spread wins this season. The Tennessee Titans are the NFL’s worst team against the spread with only two victories for their backers at the window.
Kansas City has only twice this season won games by double-digits, that being a home Monday Night Football victory over the New Orleans Saints in early October and a triumph two weeks later over the San Francisco 49ers.
Know what those two games had in common?
The Chiefs were challenged by their opponent. This was before the Saints collapsed following the injury to Derek Carr and while the 49ers were still considered one of the best in the NFC. After all, the Chiefs and Niners went overtime in last year’s Super Bowl before Kansas City triumphed by three points.
Last week, after the Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season to the Buffalo Bills on the road, many thought they would storm back with a big effort against the lowly Carolina Panthers.
Not me.
A loss is not necessarily a motivator for a good team, but a loss followed by a challenge against a quality team is what can bring out a big effort following a defeat. Now, off that narrow three-point triumph against the Panthers, the Chiefs are favored by two touchdowns at home against a weak Raiders team.
Are they challenged?
Do they fear the Silver and Black?
No.
Does that mean taking the bloated point spread with a Raiders team that stayed within seven points of the Chiefs in their first meeting this season is the right side of this point spread proposition?
It certainly can’t be the wrong side to back.
But, then again, this is the Kansas City Chiefs at home looking to maintain their grasp on the top playoff seed in the AFC. Their loss to Buffalo two weeks ago leaves the Bills only one game back of the Chiefs in the standings but with the tire-breaker edge based on their head-to-head victory.
The Chiefs straight-up record has been fueled by a rock-solid defense in a year in which Patrick Mahomes has been downright average. He has thrown at least one interception in all but one of the Chiefs games this season and his current quarterback ranking is more than 20 points off his career stat.
The Chiefs favored by double-digits is nothing new, them covering the bloated lines they are forced to lay has been a challenge seldom accomplished.
So, take the Raiders with the points?
If the Raiders were a good play, they would have won last week at home with an attractive point spread against the Denver Broncos. They didn’t. And so we have a choice, do we want a bad team with a 4 and 7 point spread record getting a load of points, or a good team with a 4 and 7 mark against the spread laying a hefty number?
Neither.