Each week for this site I write eight stories or more and most of them pick a winner in a National Football League matchup. Sometimes, like this week, we will write a story early in the week that loses credence for us as more information rolls in that sways us off an early selection.
Sometimes, like this week, the later information is so strong it not only takes us off our first look but puts us on their opponent.
On Tuesday, my first Headline Play this week tabbed the Los Angeles Chargers giving more than a field goal against the visiting Tennessee Titans. Seems likely, given the Chargers have allowed the fewest points in the league and the Titans offense is anemic.
In fact, as the week went on, more and more people piled on the Chargers side of this wager, but the books kept the point spread frozen at 7½. If the Chargers are such a good play, and the public is backing them like they are a sure thing, then why isn’t that line rising like the temperature in Phoenix in August?
Does someone know something I hadn’t accounted for early?
Well, in fact, in my own office someone seems to know something that I had not yet taken into account. Kevin, my son, who has numbers and situations that point to winners as often as a wind gauge follows breezes, told me on Tuesday night that the Titans plus the points was clearly the best play of the week.
I tried to argue my side of the case, but have you ever argued your side of a choice and realized soon into that conversation that you are battling for the losing side?
That’s how I felt as I spent the rest of the week compiling stats from casino wagering patterns and saw what Kevin saw early, the Titans plus the points is a very good play.
Now, some people might say that changing sides on a game is a sign of weakness, and for most people it is. Why? Because sometimes they are on the right side of a play but just too afraid to actually put money on their choice, opting as kickoff grows closer to side with the easier of the two plays.
But, when I shift off the easier of the two plays, and land on what appeared one of the tougher calls of the week you can take it to the bank. The bank, that is, after a quick stop at the sportsbook window.
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (+7½) over Los Angeles Chargers