The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons kickoff Week Five National Football League action tonight at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The home standing Falcons are a slight favorite, the Buccaneers come into this contest a game ahead of the hosts in the NFC South Division Standings.
So, why are the Falcons favored?
The reasoning goes something like this; they are one game back in their division standings and therefore have the more obvious motivational edge to get the win. The Buccaneers are also coming to town with significant injuries on both sides of the ball.
Favorite role for Falcons justified?
Yeah.
Does that mean they are a point spread play tonight?
No.
Why not?
Because despite coming into tonight’s game with a better record than the Falcons, Tampa Bay is not arriving in town with the swagger of a division leader but rather the edge of a team with a chip on their shoulder. The Buccaneers have won their division title the past three seasons, and yet, like Rodney Dangerfield, they don’t seem to get any respect.
The Falcons come into this season off a summer in which they got plenty of respect, perhaps more than they deserve. The acquisition of quarterback Kirk Cousins and the hiring of head coach Raheem Morris seemed solid moves to lend credence to the Falcons claiming superiority in their division.
Few things are more debilitating to a team than acknowledgment before results. The Falcons have won two and lost two this year, all four games have been close and they could easily be 4 and 0 or 0 and 4. They played the Kansas CIty Chiefs tough but failed twice late in the red zone during a five-point loss. They got last minute scoring drives to upset the Philadelphia Eagles on the road and down the New Orleans Saints last week at home.
On opening day, they were favored against the Pittsburgh Steelers and lost. If you are following that recent history, you might note that Atlanta has played only one game on the road through the first five weeks of the season. If a team is going to be good, they would have taken better advantage of the early season home games instead of losing two of the first three played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
In other words, the Falcons appear to still be saddled with expectations that exceed their actual talent and prospects.
As for the Buccaneers, they could easily lose this game tonight, but they are not coming into this contest puffed up over their three and one start. And those three Baker Mayfield led victories have been pretty impressive. Wins over a Washington Commanders team that hasn’t lost a game since along with victories against the talented Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. Their only loss, a Week Three setback to the Denver Broncos, could be attributed to two major factors. First, no one yet knew how good Denver could be, and second, the loss suffered after a win in Detroit and with Philadelphia next on their schedule. That setup could easily lead to an overconfident Tampa Bay team, which it did.
But, tonight, the team with the better record is not overconfident. Instead, they are underdogs with injuries to overcome.
Which means this, the Falcons are good enough to win this one at home and need it to catch the Bucs in the standings. But the Bucs are not in a position to allow that to happen without a spirited performance.
Great game, no bet.