The National Football League radio announcers on the Sirius band are consistently well informed and worth listening too. Two of my favorites are Bruce Murray and Rich Gannon, they team up for a show each weekday beginning at noon eastern time.
This week, Murray opened their show praising another Kansas City Chiefs win and how he would take them this week against the Buffalo Bills with no more discussion needed. Gannon whole heartily agreed that the Chiefs “have” to be the pick when they visit Buffalo this Sunday.
No they don’t.
In fact, I think the Bills over the Chiefs giving the points this week is one of the better propositions on the Week 11 card.
Here’s why.
The Chiefs have found every way to push their unblemished 9-0 mark to what I will call the brink of ending. On opening day, a review erased a last play of the game touchdown for the Baltimore Ravens that could have resulted in a Chiefs loss. Baltimore Head Coach John Harbaugh had already singled for a two-point conversion to end the game and with Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry in their backfield, I liked the visitors' chances.
In the second week, the Chiefs were saved by a fourth down pass interference call in the final moments of a game against the Cincinnati Bengals, which allowed the Chiefs to end the contest with a one-point win when Harrison Butker converted a 51-yard field goal.
Every late twist and turn for the following seven games bent the Chiefs way. Whether it was a critical stop in the redzone, which assured a win over the Atlanta Falcons, or a late scoring drive engineered by Patrick Mahomes, the results just kept coming up in the Chiefs favor.
Last week, at home, Kansas City fell behind their AFC West Division competition, the Denver Broncos, by 11 points. They then came roaring back in the fourth quarter to take a two-point lead. A lead that would have evaporated into a one-point home loss if the Broncos converted a 35-yard field goal attempt.
They didn’t.
The Chiefs found another way to win, blocking an opponent's attempt to end their unbeaten string.
Now, off those results Murray and Gannon take the Chiefs in Buffalo this week.
Not me.
Every result in the NFL feeds the next one. At some point, when stretched to the limit, any team can lose to any team. Buffalo is not any team. They are leading their division by so many games that their primary concern is not their AFC East competition but rather securing home field advantage in the playoffs.
The team that is ahead of them in this quest is Andy Reid’s perfect Chiefs. Kansas City is currently two games ahead of the Bills in the loss column. Josh Allen has led the Bills to eight wins in ten decisions this year. With a win here, the Bills could cut the Chiefs advantage in securing the top spot in the AFC playoffs to one game with a straight-up win on their side.
If Buffalo was to lose here, the race would be virtually over with the Chiefs three up in the loss column and owing the tiebreaker with a straight-up win over the Bills.
In the world of numbers and odds, the Bills and Chiefs are much closer this year in both talent and soon-to-be results than having the Chiefs create a three-game bulge midway through the 2024 season.
So, the Bills win. Now, we have to cover the point spread in the process.
When the damn breaks on the Chiefs unbeaten season it will likely do it dramatically … a double-digit Buffalo win on Sunday is much more likely than another Kansas City victory.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-2½) over Kansas City Chiefs