The New York Jets host the New England Patriots tonight with Aaron Rodgers making his first appearance in front of his new hometown fans since his 2023 campaign ended with an injury on his first series at MetLife Stadium.
The Patriots are playing their first season since dinosaurs roamed the land without Bill Belichick running the show. The former Patriots head coach retired this season after leading New England to a record six Super Bowl wins. His replacement, Jerod Mayo, was a star linebacker for the Patriots and captain of the team which went on to win Super Bowl XLIX over the Seattle Seahawks.
As a player and team captain, Mayo was one of the most respected and decorated athletes in the game. As a head coach, well, we’ll see, but early returns are much more positive than I would have anticipated.
When a team dominates as long as the Patriots did, winning Super Bowls over a two-decade period, there is almost always a severe drop in their results following their time at the top. This is for a couple obvious reasons. First, winning forces a team to draft after most of the other teams and eventually the loss of top draft picks on their roster takes a toll. Second, even while the team that was great for years may not have as good of personnel wearing their uniforms currently, opponents are still motivated to beat them given that for so many years they were handled by a team like New England.
So, with that as a backdrop, I figured the Patriots would have problems this year and was tempted to take the Cincinnati Bengals giving more than a touchdown in Mayo’s first head coaching assignment. Fortunately, we didn’t follow through with that pick as the Patriots went into Paycor Stadium and upset the heavily favored Bengals straight-up, 16-10, to open the 2024 season.
Last week, as home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks, the Patriots had another positive showing before being edged by the Seattle Seahawks in Foxboro, 23-20.
Simply stated, the Patriots are performing at a lot higher level than my preseason assessment called for. Which makes betting against them tonight, which I would lean too, a lot less confident call.
The Jets, on the other hand, opened with a pair of road games and lost to the San Francisco 49ers on the first Monday Night Football telecast of the season before getting their initial win with Rodgers running their offense for more than one series. Note, after his early game injury in his first action with the Jets his team came back from a halftime deficit in that game to beat the Buffalo Bills behind quarterback Zach Wilson. One of Wilson’s few bright moments in a disappointing career with the Jets.
Winning on the road following their opening loss to San Francisco at Tennessee last week was nothing to write home about. We don’t know how good Tennessee is, or perhaps more accurately stated, how bad the team is out of the Music City. But we know this, the Jets needed a late touchdown to break a tie enroute to a 24-17 victory.
So, is New York ready to hand the Patriots a decisive loss in their home opener in primetime tonight? Or, are the Jets still, well, the Jets?
Are the Patriots really as good as the team that beat the Cincinnati Bengals on opening day on the road or was it Cincinnati, who may have been looking past the Patriots with the Kansas City Chiefs next on their schedule, the reason the Patriots got a “W”?
While my feelings say take the Jets and expect a lopsided win, my work doesn’t bow to feelings and leaves me without a vested interest in tonight's contest.